PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t800 (9 handed) converter

saw flop|saw showdown

MP3 (t21423)
CO (t48185)
Button (t15997)
SB (t59180)
BB (t9786)
UTG (t7009)
Hero (t31330)
MP1 (t16744)
MP2 (t9435)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with , .
1 fold, Hero raises to t3000, 2 folds, MP3 calls t3000, 1 fold, Button calls t3000, SB calls t2600, BB calls t2200.

Flop: (t14200) , , (5 players)
SB checks, BB bets t6736 (All-In), Hero raises to t28280, MP3 folds, Button folds, SB calls t28280.

Turn: (t77496) (3 players, 1 all-in)

River: (t77496) (3 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: t77496

Results in white below:
SB has Jd Jh (three of a kind, jacks).
BB has As 8s (one pair, aces).
Hero has Qs Qh (one pair, queens).
Outcome: SB wins t77496.

I felt like I had to push to protect against the flush... with that many callers should I have assumed someone had a set?

This is a good hand to illustrate how difficult hands like this can be to play with a short stack who goes all in after the flop in a crowded field. This has happened often to me late in tournaments, when the variance in chipstacks can be quite large.

With so many callers, I've got to be careful of hands like JT, TT, JJ, or even 33 (I would have certainly called with 33 from the SB in his situation). The other hands we're worried about are hands like KQ, Q9, and 89 (OESD's) and flush draws. I don't think we're likely to see AQ or AK, perhaps AJ.

So the SB checks, the bb goes all in, and now it's on us. There sure are a lot of players behind us yet to act, so this is a tough situation. Do we smooth call and give them about 4.5:1 odds (which would make the OESD or flush draws correct calls), or do we raise to protect our hand (but be vulnerable to a set or 2 pair).

The first thing to do is to look at our opponents. Not knowing anything about them, all we have is their chipstacks. The BB still had about an M of 20 when the hand began, but only has 12,000 left on the flop and is going all in with any sort of hand here regardless of what we do. It's only 6,000 more than the bet in front of us, so he's not really a threat. MP3 has a significant stack, and is a force to be reckoned with here. And the SB has us covered, and could be holding the exit door open for us right now. That he checked into a crowded field with a couple of shorter stacks and with this board could mean all sorts of things, so I don't want to default by thinking he's automatically weak. Because he can bust me, I'm worried about overcommitting to this hand with him left to act.

So let's look at raising first. We've got about 28,000 left, and there's about 21,000 in the pot. If we raised it up so that our total bet is about half the current pot, we'd reduce our opponent's odds to 3:1, and leave ourselves with about 16,000 in chips left (giving us an M of exactly 20 - plenty of chips to keep up the fight). Asking yourself "if I do this, how much will I have left" is a critical question in this situation (and all like it). The second question we need to ask is, how committed to this hand are we? If we raise here, and get reraised by the SB, I think we're definitely beat and I'd lay down the QQ (remember, he still has to beat the all in player so his reraise is not a bluff). If we raise, get reraised by MP3, and it folds around, we'll likely have to call (we'd be getting incredible odds at that point).

If we reraise all in, we're only going to get a call if we're beat, so I think this is a mistake given that we can raise enough to deny our opponent their odds to draw, and still have enough chips to get away from the hand if we're reraised (which against an all in player means you're beat).

If we flat call, the other opponents are getting at least 4.5:1 on their money. So they'd be fools not to call and try to hit their flush or straight on us.

So all in all, I think we have to raise to about 12,000 total. If reraised by anyone other than MP3 (who would only have an additional 6K), we fold because we're beat.

Jason - Ty for you post, I think that is one of the best/most useful responses I've gotten on this forum.

I think it's a good post too, but I have a couple of questions:

"With so many callers, I've got to be careful of hands like JT, TT, JJ, or even 33 (I would have certainly called with 33 from the SB in his situation). The other hands we're worried about are hands like KQ, Q9, and 89 (OESD's) and flush draws. I don't think we're likely to see AQ or AK, perhaps AJ. "

Don't JJ and TT both make preflop moves way more often than not with the pot so substantial by the time the PF action gets to them? I think AJ is a pretty likely holding from one of the blinds - it's one of those hands that from their POV is strong enough to call, but not to raise against such a large field. Of course the SB could have just about anything give their stack and the odds...

"If we reraise all in, we're only going to get a call if we're beat, so I think this is a mistake given that we can raise enough to deny our opponent their odds to draw, and still have enough chips to get away from the hand if we're reraised (which against an all in player means you're beat)."

I don't think this is true. I think the SB has enough chips to justify calling a strong draw here and may just be lured in to calling with a hand like KJ or AJ by the size of the pot. I think this is a pretty critical counter point to the excellent argumentation above.

Without resorting to the careful analysis above, cause i don't have time, I'd make one last quick point: I think this is a pot you need to win to have a strong shot at winning the tournament, and I think you should play the pot as such. On that note, please give more info about # of players left, avg stack etc Now I will peek at the results....

... wow, i'm really surprised the SB didn't make a play PF with JJ - your over-bet PF stinks of AK.

chris

Overbet? It wasn't even 4x BB, and he was EP.

I would have actually gone higher PF and hope that one of the three shortstacks behind you takes the bait and pushes. Make it 3,800, and fold to a reraise from either MP3, CO, or SB.

Jason's postflop argument sounds like the best play there, but it would be a difficult play for me to make, in the moment. I would have pushed as well, without any other information (players left, average stack size, pay structure, reads, etc.).

As for tourny stats (as far as I can remeber) -

-Avg stack was about 12k,
-150/1500 left (everyone in the money but just under double the $2 buy-in. Real money starts at top 20.)
-SB was chip leader before the hand and after was 2:1 over the 2nd place guy
-As for reads BB was almost surely on the flush draw, or AJ. The rest of the players seem solid but I was only about 10-15 hands into that table.

I think the main mistake I made was not respecting the strength of my opponets hands. I raised 3.5x the bb from early positon, at this point in the tourny everyone left is good enough to realize the strength it takes to make this raise. Yet I still got 4 callers...

I see what chris is saying about winning this pot being a huge step towards winning the tourny, but I think jason's right if I raise to 12k and get reraised I'm most definatly looking at a set/AA/KK or at best AK of spades. If AK of spades I had odds to call but I'm still behind.

[B]Note: There are some errors in my initial post, primarily confusing the BB and button . . . but it seems everyone figured out what I was saying.

Originally Posted by PartTimePoker

Don't JJ and TT both make preflop moves way more often than not with the pot so substantial by the time the PF action gets to them?

Yes, but we have to be aware that our opponents will often mix up their play, particularly given the blinds and chipstacks. This is why it's so critical to know how many chips your opponents have left when considering their possible actions (obviously, for online this is much easier).

Originally Posted by PartTimePoker

"If we reraise all in, we're only going to get a call if we're beat, so I think this is a mistake given that we can raise enough to deny our opponent their odds to draw, and still have enough chips to get away from the hand if we're reraised (which against an all in player means you're beat)."

I don't think this is true. I think the SB has enough chips to justify calling a strong draw here and may just be lured in to calling with a hand like KJ or AJ by the size of the pot. I think this is a pretty critical counter point to the excellent argumentation above.

Early on, I'd agree. This stage of a tournament, I think the maniacs have likely busted out and we're only going to get our all in raise called if we're beat.

Originally Posted by PartTimePoker

Without resorting to the careful analysis above, cause i don't have time, I'd make one last quick point: I think this is a pot you need to win to have a strong shot at winning the tournament, and I think you should play the pot as such.

I think this is the type of hand that separates the good players from the stone cold killers. The difference may be only slight, but the best players shave every last edge off of every situation. I guess I disagree that we "have to win this pot" . . . in fact, with no sidepot against an all in player, it's pretty much just up to the cards at this point. All we can do is try to protect our hand against other players remaining in the pot on draws . . . . and we're not going to bluff anyone out that has us beat by going all in. And at this stage I can't see top pair making an overcall or reraise of an all in and reraise in front of them (of course it will happen some % of the time, but I think that is a very small %). But if we raise enough to deny them their direct odds and they reraise us, we can know we're beat and lay it down with an M of 20, which is plenty to continue.