Just wanted to think this through.

The accepted wisdom is that you need to bet enough to deny odds to the flush draw to correctly call you. But how much is that with implied odds in the picture?

For my analysis, I'm going to assume you have the best hand on the flop. Your opponent has only 9 outs (no pair or overcards or straight draws). This makes him approximately 4-1 to hit his card on the turn. I'm also going to assume that you have to follow up bet the turn, even if the flush card hits. After all, NOT betting there is giving the pot away if he DOESNT have a flush draw. We will say that your turn bet is the same size in relation to the pot as your flop bet (bet the pot on the flop, bet it again on the turn). Finally, you will put no more money in after that if the flush does hit... so when he raises you, you will fold.


In that case, if you bet the pot, your opponent is getting 5-1 with the implied odds.
1/2 pot gives him 7-1
2/3 pot gives him 5.5 (or so) - 1
2 * pot gives him 6.5 -1

So if you do this, you cannot make it incorrect for a flush draw to call (assuming you have chips left to follow up on the turn).

How about we say that whatever you bet on the flop, you'll bet half the pot on the turn?

1/2 pot still gives him 7-1
pot gives him 3.5-1
2/3 pot gives him 4.25-1
3/4 pot gives him 4-1

So in this case, a 3/4 pot bet on the flop is the breakeven point. (notice however, that this is with only 9 outs... a flush draw will VERY often have either a pair for an additional 5 outs, or an overcard for an additional 3)

My conclusion? I don't think you can really make it incorrect for a FD to call without a large overbet on the flop and seriously slowing down if the flush card hits (unless you have a set, which reduces his equity dramatically). What does this say about strategy? Make sure you are betting smaller when the Flush card hits

I find implied odds are kind of hard to follow. Although Ive been up for close to 24 hours programming.... so Im having trouble following anything atm....

just bet 3/4 the pot and dont get stacked when the flush hits

Originally Posted by Jack King off

just bet 3/4 the pot and dont get stacked when the flush hits

Thats the whole thing... If you are good enough to take away the implied odds too, then they don't even apply here.

Originally Posted by Jack King off

just bet 3/4 the pot and dont get stacked when the flush hits

This was my thought, but you have to observe your opponents REaction to your action as you HAVE to be the aggressor here, not the reactor. How you follow through is very player dependent. We'll use a scenario where you have on the button and see a flop of:



A.) If your opponent is one that is LP and checks. You bet 3/4 and he calls. You can be sure that you have the best hand. The reaction to a non-spade on the turn can be a 2/3 pot bet and a 1/2-3/4 pot bet on the river.

B.) If your opponent is a strong player that likes to mix it up, you need to answer this question and answer it fast: Does this person believe in your bets? meaning is this opponent gonna see me as weak if I bet big or if I bet small and what will he see if I bet small.

This is important because you want to gauge your hand without the fear of a check-raise. Against a good player I might wanna bet the pot here to get a call or fold. I can check/check, check/fold, check/call-small, or fold to a spade. I can get a call on the flop with pot bets many times and take the pot with a 3/4-pot bet on the turn to a non-spade.

C.) Against a weak-tight player, I love a 2/3-3/4 pot bet here, a 1/2-2/3 bet on the turn to a non-spade, and a 1/2 bet on the river.

Of course, I'm ASSuming the position that you have a positional advantage on your opponent. Though, I would play this similarly without position as aggression through being the actor is important here as oppossed to being the reactor.

Just an example off the top of my head. If you have another scenario in mind, shoot. This is a good topic to ask questions on and really think about if you haven't already.

Make him go all-in after the flop