who's winnin, seemed to be playing fairly loose since I sat down at the table. He called my bet on the flop here so I didnt really put him on a gut shot draw. In hindsight maybe I should not have made such a agressive bet on the turn with straight possiblity on board, but I thought my top two pair was good here.


PokerStars Game #4350894783: Hold'em No Limit ($0.05/$0.10) - 2006/03/20 - 03:51:56 (ET)
Table 'Barto' Seat #6 is the button
Seat 1: who's winnin ($3.10 in chips)
Seat 2: diskeleven ($2.95 in chips)
Seat 3: Moreland87 ($2.10 in chips)
Seat 5: gatman999 ($15.10 in chips)
Seat 6: Autologic ($6.15 in chips)
who's winnin: posts small blind $0.05
diskeleven: posts big blind $0.10
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Autologic [Th As]
Moreland87: calls $0.10
gatman999: folds
Autologic: raises $0.20 to $0.30
who's winnin: calls $0.25
diskeleven: folds
Moreland87: calls $0.20
*** FLOP *** [7c 8d Ac]
who's winnin: checks
Moreland87: checks
Autologic: bets $0.60
who's winnin: calls $0.60
Moreland87: folds
*** TURN *** [7c 8d Ac] [Ts]
who's winnin: checks
Autologic: bets $1.50
who's winnin: raises $0.70 to $2.20 and is all-in
Autologic: calls $0.70
*** RIVER *** [7c 8d Ac Ts] [8h]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
who's winnin: shows [Jc 9c] (a straight, Seven to Jack)
Autologic: shows [Th As] (two pair, Aces and Tens)
who's winnin collected $6.30 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $6.60 | Rake $0.30
Board [7c 8d Ac Ts 8h]
Seat 1: who's winnin (small blind) showed [Jc 9c] and won ($6.30) with a straight, Seven to Jack
Seat 2: diskeleven (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 3: Moreland87 folded on the Flop
Seat 5: gatman999 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: Autologic (button) showed [Th As] and lost with two pair, Aces and Tens

__________________
"On a large enough time line, the survival rate of a Donk will drop to zero."

Hmm, i think its hard for you to put him on a flushdraw + a gutshot straight draw. So i think you gave bad odds to draw for the flush, so the bet is fine. I'd actually like to see what some of the other people say about this.

Bad odds? 3-1 immediate odds with 12 outs are pretty solid. However, I think the flop bet is all right.

On the turn, it didn't fill the most obvious draw. Therefore, you have to bet. He raises you... but you're getting like 10-1 odds to call his all-in. With top-2, you pretty much have to call that no matter what. Even if you KNOW he has a straight, it's a marginal call for you to try and hit your 4 outs to a boat. With some slight possibility that you're ahead, it's a no-brainer.

For your question, lets assume his whole stack is implied odds to hit on the turn. If you bet a buck on the flop, he's getting 4-1, and he'll hit 3-1. To make it breakeven for him, you need to bet about 1.30. Overbetting the pot like this will protect your hand against occasional exceptionally strong draws... but with his stack size it also commits you to paying him off when he hits, and keeps you from making money against the weak hands that you WANT to call you here.

Nothing much you could have done, I don't think.

__________________
-You may not know this, but poker is a game of incomplete information.

I said assuming you put him only on the flush draw, he doesnt have odds. But just barely