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Go Back PokerForums.org > Strategy Discussion > General Poker Strategy > $40 +$10k MTT

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  #21 (permalink)  
Old 03-21-2006, 06:24 AM
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He's a fish with KQs...call.
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  #22 (permalink)  
Old 03-21-2006, 07:20 AM
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Villain is not subtle is he? Blew his wad with TPTK and nut flush draw earlier and got lucky to get a caller. Don't give him more chips. He will be giving them back soon enough.
Unless he has been playing every hand, give him credit for something.
The good: KQ, QJ, QT, underpair
The bad: 66, 33, QQ
The ugly: flush draw, AQ also

Need to call 1220 to win 1695. You need to win 42% LT in this situation to be profitable. You have the odds, but with your tournament life at stake, I would want to be over 50% to win. It just so happens that if he has: Qx 1/3 of the time; set 1/3; FD 1/3 - you are just about 50% to win. No wonder its a difficult decision.

Personally, I don't want to make a stand here and I lay it down. But I don't think its wrong to call.
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  #23 (permalink)  
Old 03-21-2006, 08:48 AM
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I'm calling here...

There's a chance he may have a set of 6's or 3's, but I'm thinking more along the lines of KQ and he's trying to steal the pot wit top pair and a good kicker.

Last edited by FelixTheCat; 03-21-2006 at 08:52 AM.
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  #24 (permalink)  
Old 03-21-2006, 09:04 AM
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are we gonna get some results for this? I'm really curious now.
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  #25 (permalink)  
Old 03-21-2006, 12:57 PM
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Totally forgot...

Barbourman was close.... he had KQo and I took down a nice pot.... Forgot how I finished though......

Guy tourned out to be a total fish and this was actually his best play of the night.....
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Old 03-21-2006, 01:15 PM
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HAHAHAHAHA, I was right :rockpoker
Did you win the tourney? Go look it up.
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  #27 (permalink)  
Old 03-21-2006, 01:22 PM
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think I would have glory post if I won a $7500 first prize....
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Old 03-21-2006, 01:25 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Marm
think I would have glory post if I won a $7500 first prize....
True.
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  #29 (permalink)  
Old 03-21-2006, 01:27 PM
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Odds are important, but doubling up in the first hour of a tournament raises your "tournament implied odds" (if I may coin the term) massively.

If you are laying this down you are going to spend a lot of time with a short stack in the second and third hours waiting for a monster while you get killed by the blinds.

Call it and pay the people with AA and KK or trips then enter another tourney, but there will be a lot of times when you double up. Everyone but the winner finishes a tourney with zero chips, put crudely it's about survival beyond the point where the money starts (and if you are playing for real making the final 4 or 5), which ironically means taking risks that can lead to getting knocked out.

I would much rather go out in this situation than end up falling just short of the money having eked my way through three or four hours of short stack poker. Whether you are the first person out or go out on the bubble the result is exactly the same - zero chips and zero cash.

Of course once you make that initial double up the next time it happens you are a) not under as much pressure, b) capable of losing a hand and still remaining in the tourney. In fact once you get a decent amount of chips you can choose your play to suit the size of the stack you are playing against. Against a fellow big stack the same hand is often played far more conservatively than against the smaller stacks. I think of these as "lives" where I can make a mistake or get outdrawn and keep on going, the first move like Marm's hand not only wins the chips but wins a "life" which enables further risky plays but removes the probability of elimination in a single hand.

I'm far from a maniac in tournies, but I never let the words "this puts my tourney on the line" affect my decision making. It's either a good move or not, getting knocked out doesn't really matter and if I can get my chips in the middle with a good chance I'm ahead I'll do so.
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