Help with Tourney Hand - Page 2

tightagressive · #11 (**permalink**) 03-16-2006, 06:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cpt. Bloodclot

i guessing you folded because you were worried that you would be raised futher down the line if you tried to limp, which is what happened. It was a good fold, made for the right reasons. The four on the flop proves nothing, that only happens 12% of times, the majority of the other 88% of times you've just pissed some chips up the wall.

88% of the time yes you do lose the chips, but the idea is, the 12% of the time you win with a set (or by miracle, the best hand on the river without a set) if you play according to pot odds/implied odds you make more than you lose. plus in a tournament there is added value to a double up.

Beavis68 · #12 (**permalink**) 03-16-2006, 06:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Eclipse86

ya, the table was pretty tight, but there was a lot of blind stealing going on. Id say about 70-80% of the time, someone raised PF. I guess thats the main reason i layed this hand down. For fear that someone would play back at me, or one of the blinds would (the sb possibly - who has double my stack) would make a move on me and come over the top, just because he has the stack to do so and the fact that im almost at the money.

most raises people made were about 3-4x BB

I think it is in the transition area. If there were raises that often, I would probably fold.

Eclipse86 · #13 (**permalink**) 03-16-2006, 06:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tightagressive

in your position with your stack of 10k, your M is over 10, i think thats enough room to try to flop a set.

so ive seen u guys have been mentioning "M". What exactly is M?

Cpt. Bloodclot · #14 (**permalink**) 03-16-2006, 06:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tightagressive

actually, it can widthstand a raise if enough people call. usually if im getting 4:1 with a pp on a 3-5 bb raise, ill call, any position with a decent stack. (you are actually 7.5:1 to flop a set, but i usually only need 4:1, sometimes even 3:1, because of implied odds. you figure with 3/4 other people seeing a flop, when you flop a set somone has to have SOMEthing to get a bet in with, you have about a 30% chance to pair the flop and if 4 people get in theres a pretty good chance somone makes a good hand as well, 2 pair vs your set is beautiful, and would surely stack somone in a tournament.

I have a problem with this, namely your highly likely to go bust before you hit your set.

You have 10,000 chips, blinds are 400/200.

You limp from EP, its raised to 3-5bb, 2-3 ppl call, you call. Vast majority of times you miss the flop, and are unlikely to be able bluff it or get a free card, due to the number of players in the pot. So you fold the flop. And now you have c. 8,400 chips. You try again, same situation. Miss. Now you have 6,800. Miss again, all other things remaining equal, and your down to 5,200. Thats half your chips gone. With a c. 12% of hitting the flop, you need to repeat >4 times before, on average, you hit. By the time your down to 12BBs are you really going to call 1/3 of your stack to play a small pocket pair in a raised multiway pot? Probably not, so you have to stop. Probably best not to start.

Personally I would only play small pocket pairs in EP late in the tourney on a very passive table where you have a good chance of not being raised.

mxp2004 · #15 (**permalink**) 03-16-2006, 07:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Eclipse86

so ive seen u guys have been mentioning "M". What exactly is M?

M is a tournament poker concept. M = your chip stack divided by the total amount of chips that it will cost you to play one full orbit of the table.

E.g., if you have 600 chips and the blinds are 50/100 with no antes, then your M = 4 (600/150). What this means is that you can play 4 orbits of the table before you will be blinded out.

Generally, when M > 20, you have the full range of poker tricks at your disposal because your stack is so big.

When M < 20, then you have to start loosening your starting hand and calling requirements a little because your stack is starting to get depleted.

When M < 10, then you're really looking for a spot to make a move and pick up some chips.

When M < 5, then you're in all in or fold mode for sure.