First, I am by no means in love with Poker Academy. Maybe I'm trying a little too hard to find a way to talk about it here, but it was a goal of mine to bring its uses (for better or worse) into PFO. I'm still trying to figure out how to get the most out of it.

Yes, I realize that the numbers I gave are to showdown. I realize that a lot can happen from flop to river. But in this particular example the strength at flop is very close to the strength to showdown. They are very close because there are no draws to str8s and flushes that are worth worrying about. Also runner runner for trips is not worth worrying about. There are only 2 ways a hand can "catch up" in this example:
1) KK being behind Ax/made set and catching a K on the turn or river
2) smaller pair being behind KK and catching the set on the turn or river
and the odds of each of these is very slim and more or less cancel each other out.
Therefore, for all intensive purposes, the flop equity is virtually equal to the showdown equity.

IMO, the biggest flaw in my data is the value of Ax folding to a bet thinking he's outkicked by another Ace. But this ignored folding equity may be reduced by 2 things:
1) with KK it is not unlikey that a large pf raise was made; this increases the likelihood that a calling Ax has a higher kicker thereby reducing the prob. that that player will fold Ax in fear of being outkicked
2) some fish never fold a pair of Aces

At any rate, I should probably summarize what I think:
1) I agree with Antneye, betting is necessary in this situation to see where you are at.
2) You need to bet more cautiously against multiple opponents
3) I used math to defend the above deductions and to give approx. ranges of EV+ bets
4) I agree with T-Aggressive (and others) that knowing/reading/feeling opponents is valuable and key to making good decisions on hands like this. But this is an argument that thrown at mathematical arguments anytime. Its like science vs religion.
5) This example can be complicated beyond the PA numbers in a variety of ways (a flop with draws, oponents propensity to bluff, facing a call or reraise... etc.)
6) I just hope that the stats on how often KK is beaten by a pair of aces or a set with a flop of A x x can help people determine their first move after the flop.

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"There is a good chance I gave you a very bad description of something that doesn't work."

Nice post Yip.... I was just trying to make sure you knew what you were talking about

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Thanks. It's all good. I never mind a good exchange of logical thought and opinions.

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"There is a good chance I gave you a very bad description of something that doesn't work."

As a follow up to this I did put the following into Poker Stove:

Player 1 KK
Player 2 Any ace or any PP ...

Flop with Ac, 7d, 3s
Player 1 win % 31.1
player 2 win % 68.8
Rest tie

Not taking into account that they think they are holding a worse kicker or putting you on a better pair and folding on your post flop bet is betting out after a called raise pre flop still a good idea?

Your %s are only 1% different than what I posted on page 1 of this thread. So, in short, everything that has been said is still applicable.

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"There is a good chance I gave you a very bad description of something that doesn't work."

Thats cause PA only does 100k hands... Pstove does them all. Hence the error.

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Yes, and also because PA used a slightly different range of possible starting hands for the villain. But I agree, Poker Stove is a better application than PA Hand Evaluator (you can read about it in my upcoming review )

Hold on.... I just realized I got Jester's numbers backwards. vs. any A or pp, KK is now the underdog 31% to 69%. OK, new response:

1st... you have to have a legitimate reason to put your opponent on ONLY Ax or pp. Why won't he play suited connectors and Kx? You sure he'll play A2o and other weak aces?

2nd... assuming he has Ax or pp, you are a little more than 2-1 dog. He probably won't fold to a 1/3 pot size bet. So you have to use your intuition to guess whether he will fold to a larger bet.

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"There is a good chance I gave you a very bad description of something that doesn't work."

if this was a nl cash game.

then yes i would bet.. i would bet about half the pot, to test if anyone had the ace. If im raised then im convinced someone has AK or AQ and i fold. If im called then it could be someone playing A weak kicker, so i will slow down on the turn and river.

What about this one?
I was done with it on the turn except I figured the K helped me in 2 ways...
1> My opponent thinks I have AK and just made 2 pair.
2> I've picked up a gutshot straight draw giving me 4 more outs and while it's a longshot, it still helps.

You guys are going to kill me for betting out against 3 opponents, aren't you?





PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (8 handed) internettexasholdem.com

UTG ($4.20)
UTG+1 ($2.88)
MP1 ($15.88)
MP2 ($4.77)
CO ($2.22)
Button ($4.46)
Hero ($4.90)
BB ($4.57)

Preflop: Hero is SB with , .
2 folds, MP1 calls $0.05, MP2 calls $0.05, 1 fold, Button calls $0.05, Hero raises to $0.25, 1 fold, MP1 calls $0.20, MP2 calls $0.20, Button calls $0.20.

Flop: ($1.05) , , (4 players)
Hero bets $0.5, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, Button calls $0.50.

Turn: ($2.05) (2 players)
Hero bets $1, Button folds.

Final Pot: $3.05

Results in white below:
No showdown. Hero wins $3.05.

I am not saying that you can't win doing it ....

You can win holding 72os but over the long run it will provide a -ev.

Over the long run, if your opponent always called to the river holding AA or PP he would win 2 times to your one.

To make this a profitable play 2-1 in your favour you would have to assess the opponents holding and be 50% sure he wasn't holding Ax or PP or wouldn't call to the end.