Yip, you've misinterpreted the Numbers PA threw at you.

That's equity, not chance of winning (and not ahead/behind), and equity must be compared to the numbers of players in a pot. So the vs 3 players, your 31% equity means you will make a profit at showdown every time (in sklansky chips of course), since you are entitled to a 25% share of the pot for just showing up. The 6% equity is your profit. KK is +EV to see the showdown vs the hand ranges you specified, thats what equity tells you, but player actions at the table will force you to skew those ranges.

That's another thing I didn't like about PA, it only sims the evaluator to 100k hands. PStove runs the full hand, all permutations. There are hands with billions of possible outcomes, and 100k is just not enough.

__________________

Hero:
Flop:

Opponents who play top 20% of hands:
vs 1 opponents, we win showdown 62% of the time
vs 2 opponents, we win showdown 38% of the time
vs 3 opponents, we win showdown 26% of the time
**********************************************

Opponents who play top 10% of hands:
vs 1 opponents, we win showdown 56% of the time
vs 2 opponents, we win showdown 33% of the time
vs 3 opponents, we win showdown 18% of the time
**********************************************

Opponents who play top 33% of hands:
vs 1 opponents, we win showdown 66% of the time
vs 2 opponents, we win showdown 45% of the time
vs 3 opponents, we win showdown 31% of the time
**********************************************

A perfect example...
My PF raise was supposed to be $0.25 but I guess I hit the wrong key.



PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (9 handed) internettexasholdem.com

UTG ($10.38)
UTG+1 ($1.81)
Hero ($4.86)
MP2 ($2.98)
MP3 ($3.10)
CO ($16.44)
Button ($10.53)
SB ($6.37)
BB ($3.70)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with , .
2 folds, Hero raises to $0.15, MP2 calls $0.15, MP3 calls $0.15, 1 fold, Button calls $0.15, 2 folds.

Flop: ($0.67) , , (4 players)
Hero bets $0.3, MP2 calls $0.30, MP3 calls $0.30, Button folds.

Turn: ($1.57) (3 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets $0.3, MP3 folds, Hero folds.

Final Pot: $1.87

Results in white below:
No showdown. MP2 wins $1.87.

I can see the mistake there ...

this aint done ... like to see the figures for any ace calls or any pp calls against KK ...

From Poker Academy Pro: "Strength is the probability of winning the showdown against n opponent hands". So I believe those %s I put up are accurate as I have represented them.
Obviously, we end up skewing what we think the villain might have, based on his behaviors. But in the context of having a high pocket pair, one overcard and no draws on the flop, being first to bet, and the assumption that we make 1 bet and either a) scoop, b) fold to a reraise or c) check/fold turn and further assuming that the opponent will only call/raise with hands that beat us, we can get a good idea of EV bet sizes vs. 1, 2 or 3 opponents of varying aggressiveness preflop. Yes this probably oversimplifies things, but it answers the OPs original question.
That said, I am now quoting myself in my signature just to cover my ass.

__________________
"There is a good chance I gave you a very bad description of something that doesn't work."

bingo! evaluate the players at your table, even if you dont have a read. sure, you need to know the chances of a player holding an ace, but you cant play just by math. you have to evaluate the chances, with the pot odds, with what you think the other players have, with how the other players at the table percieve you, and with your position(those arent in order, however you could put them in order of importance)

just weigh the hand out. alot of players (everybody, when the first start playing) just bet because they feel like betting. work on playing where every single hand you know your position, the size of the pot, and have at least an educatued guess on the players at the table. the better you get at doing this, the better poker player you become.

Jester keep in mind the oher players don't know what you raised PF with. As a "general" play I would probably bet the flop and see what type of reaction I get. Even if they do have an ace they might think their kicker is no good especially if they're playing Ax. The rest of the table dosen't know you're raising with QQ or KK, they may put you on something like AK especially if you raise from EP.

Let's say you bet out and get raised by someone behind you, you now have a little information about where thay stand, they're either not afraid of the ace.. because it possibly helped them, or it could be a potential bluff, which like others have said is dependant on knowing the player's tendencies (from there you can throw your hand away if you feel your hand is no good). IMO I think betting makes your opponents think here, you've put some pressure on them to determine if their hand is still good, when you check and someone bets, now the pressure is back on you to make a decision.

__________________
If you're looking to borrow money or have someone give you money in order to play poker online please don't contact me... Click Here for help , and explain your situation.

Buyt Yp, those are showdown numbers, not flop numbers, thats the rub. If we were going all in here, then those numbers are applicable.

This is what I'm sayin about what is missing from PA, You can do this with PokerStove for $130 cheaper. What PA needs is the situational simulations, where you can set "userbot" to do X action on Y board and run it from there with Z bots as opponents. Then you can switch UserBot to do W action on the same board and see what the EV difference is.

I know your liking your tool (ummmm), and I don't want to discourage you from using said tool (ummmmm). But in this case Equity, and this is equity regardless of how the PA help files word it, is not what we are looking for here. We are looking for relative strength on the flop, not the showdown.

__________________

the other other problem with those numbers is that they change rapidly if you get raised or called. These are reverse implied odd spots post flop.