That would be less scary than 1 A ....

what if he reraise you ... you got a decision and it could be costly. With 2 A on the flop i'd be tempted to put in a reraise and see what you did.

What I am trying to get to is check folding such a bad decision?

You put more chips in to find out if he had an A .. in this instanc he didn't but it would have cost you if he had.

Those chips could be crucial in a tournament

And what I'm trying to say is that continued aggression on the flop will win the pot more often than you will run into someone holding an A.

At what point when you have been aggressive pre flop and you get callers do you assess that someone would not be holding an A?

Why should you not put an opponent on an A when there has been a big raise pre flop...

Obviously aggression is a positive thing, but when you have improved the chances of someone holding an A pre flop by a raise then you cannot disregard that more often than not you will be playing against an A.

OK, you want statistics? I've got some, courtesy of Poker Academy Pro.

PAP Hand Evaluator will run 100k simulations based on the following variables:
*Hero's Hole Cards
*Known Board Cards (if any)
*Opponents preflop hand selection

Based on these simulations, Hand Evaluator will offer the following:
*% probability that you would win at showdown vs. X number of opponents
*% probability that your opponent(s) will draw to a certain hand (pair, set...etc.)
*% probability that your opponent(s) have made a certain hand

So lets look at a situation with KK and no draws on the flop. Also, we will assume that opponents can only hold top 20% of starting hands:

Hero has
Flop:

PAP HE says:
vs. 1 opponent Hero wins 68%
vs. 2 opponents Hero wins 45%
vs. 3 opponents Hero wins 31%

Even though these numbers are to showdown, in this particular situation we are either way ahead or way behind. So the possible redraws on the turn and river are negligible.

If you consider making a pot sized bet on the flop and we assume Ax and a set will call or raise 100% of the time and everything else folds 100% of the time we can say:

Vs 1 opponent we are ahead about 2/3 of the time, therefore a pot sized bet is EV+.

Vs 2 opponents we are ahead about 45% of the time, so a pot sized bet is EV-. However, a 2/3 or 3/4 sized bet is EV+

Vs 3 opponents we are ahead about 33% of the time, so a 1/3 sized bet is EV neutral (not to mention a pretty ineffective sized bet)

What we are ignoring, however, is the folding equity of our bets. Will AT fold?
We are also ignoring the implied odds of being against someone who will call his JJ or TT down to the river.
************************************************** ****
Now, against looser opponents, let's say those who would be in this pot with the top 33% of starting hands:

vs 1 opponents, we win showdown 71% of the time
vs 2 opponents, we win showdown 50% of the time
vs 3 opponents, we win showdown 35% of the time
vs 4 opponents, we win showdown 25% of the time

************************************************** *****
Now, against tighter opponents, let's say those who would be in this pot with the top 10% of starting hands:

vs 1 opponents, we win showdown 66% of the time
vs 2 opponents, we win showdown 41% of the time
vs 3 opponents, we win showdown 28% of the time

************************************************** *****
I'm sorry about the length of this post. I hope it answers some of the OPs questions and gives a little insight. I also wanted to share a little bit of Poker Academy with y'all.

I will also break this situation down similarly with QQ or JJ if it is requested in this thread.

I request that ypsi break down QQ and JJ in this thread. just cuz I wanna see the break downs. :good:

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Nimvin
"I bet how much?!"

Top 20% starting hands ... can you make this all A's and all PP's?

By the way that is impressive !!!!

Didn't I explain it all perfectly when I said you need to bet here?

Thanks for the positive feedback. I'm sorry, but I don't believe I can limit the sim to just Ax and pp. Nim- QQ and JJ will be posted later tonight. I might even do TT (I think there is an applicable thread with TT posted recently). I also want to see how analysis might change with flush and str8 draws on the board, but this might be a little ambitious for tonight.

Also, for preflop play with pps, you should check out this chart here that gives the % probabilty that an overcard to your pp will hit the flop/board.

The simple answer to your question is then "It depends".

it depends on your image, The opponents at the table, and alot of other things. You've raised PF, You've built a decent pot, and we are jsut going to let it slip by? Each scenario you present like this is uniquely different. there is no rule of thumb (woulda been better if was rule of wrist don't ya think? sorry...) for these situations. You just really need to use your best judgement to get the most sklansky chips possible.

Having an absolute rule for anything is poker is the mark of a non thinking player, and usually a losing one.

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heads-up, I usually bet.

3-way or more, I check to see what the table does and play it from there.