Extracted form my Glory thread, this one actually had merit. I say my River Raise is +EV, Beavis says no. What do you guys say?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t20 (9 handed) converter

saw flop|saw showdown

Button (t1450)
SB (t2660)
BB (t1320)
UTG (t2970)
UTG+1 (t1550)
MP1 (t970)
MP2 (t3070)
Hero (t3200)
CO (t950)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with , .
UTG calls t20, UTG+1 calls t20, 1 fold, MP2 calls t20, Hero calls t20, CO calls t20, 1 fold, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (t140) , , (7 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 bets t60, MP2 folds, Hero calls t60, CO folds, SB folds, BB calls t60, UTG folds.

Turn: (t320) (3 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 bets t220, Hero calls t220, BB folds.

River: (t760) (2 players)
UTG+1 bets t420, Hero raises to t1300, UTG+1 calls t830 (All-In).

Final Pot: t3310
Main Pot: t3260 (t3260), between UTG+1 and Hero. > Pot won by UTG+1 (t3260).
Pot 2: t50 (t50), returned to Hero.

Results in white below:
UTG+1 has 9s Ah (full house, nines full of aces).
Hero has Tc 8c (straight, jack high).
Outcome: UTG+1 wins t3260. Hero wins t50.

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Considering the other histories your posted, I would say so.

I didnt say no.

I just said I dont like it.

I like to avoid getting money in drawing dead. You trapped him but now have no idea where you are, or if he will call a big raise with just aces up when the board pairs and you suddenly wake up.

Im not putting him on a set or two pair on the flop, not protecting against draws at all. Then again, his play all together confuses me.

i think its +EV. think about it this way. if the river is a 7, thus pairing the board but you still have the winning hand.
do you still make the same raise? yes
does he still call? yes. hes getting better than 2:1 on his money with top 2, and i think hes going to play AK, AJ, maybe AQ the same way, and make the same river call. obviously he busts you with a boat, but its early in the sng, folding is retarded because you are left stranded, you are supposed to be building a stack.

in a cash game im with beavis on the fact that i would probably just call. in a sng im pushing this for sure.

i dont like the river raise, id say for the majority of the time ur only gonna be called down by a hand that has u beat.. so with that being said, theres no real point in raising river, if ur only gonna get called when ur beat.

villian has shown strength throughout the entire hand, and continues to bet into you on the river, even when he knows u have him stacked easily and can call him in a heartbeat without even thinking. why would he do this, unless he had a awesome hand on all streets?

Allin on the turn!!!

If I got where you were, I'd call the river. Not losing the extra 800 chips is more important here than winning them.

(This is a SnG?, if it's an MTT I might push the river)

Gotta raise that turn (all in looks like), you've effectively given him a free card to beat you (which he does!!).

I think that given the development of the hand, on the river this is a calling hand at best. There were a lot of opponents going in, so I've got to be thinking someone may be sitting on a set, and when the board pairs I think "shit" and just call. There's so many cards we don't want to see on the river . . . . a ten, queen, king, spade, board pair . . . that's why we have to raise on the turn. Of course he probably calls anyway and we lose. C'est la vie.

You guys really think hes playing anything other than an Ace X here? Cmon... He needed either AJ, A9, or A7 to beat me. And this guy would have raised AJ PF, so I ruled that out. I'm 99% sure hes playing an ace, so any of the other draw cards don't bother me at all. That was my thinking on the turn

On the river, there are only 6 ace hands that beat me (the other 6 Ace Nine combinations), 77 (3) and 99 (1). Thats 10 hands that I lose to. There are 12 other Aces that I beat, for 72 combinations. JJ is not an option, nor is AA. And yes, this guy calls with them all on the river.

so 10/82 = 12.2% of the time I lose. 87.8% I win.

So if I flat call the river:
So 12.2% of the time I lose 420 for -51.24
87.8% I win 1180 for 1036.04
Fot a net of 984.8

If I make the play that I did...
12.2% of the time I lose 1250 for -152.5
87.8% I win 2500 for 2195
For a net of 2042.5

Putting the guy all in is twice as profitable as flat calling, given the hands I had him on, Which I'm sure is 99% accurate. Either way, given this hand range, seeing the showdown is still very profitable, regardless of how the action goes. And this is even conserveative since I doubt he plays 77 this way.

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Cant tell you how many times I have been screwed by that second lower card showing up on the board to make a full. I may have just called his river raise here, unless you had a good read on him.

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