River EV? - Page 2

Irexes · #11 (**permalink**) 03-07-2006, 02:07 PM

I don't buy the approach of "only x hands beat me". He only needs one of them and either has it or doesn't.

Before I saw the result I read the HH and thought, allin on the turn. Yes I thought you were ahead at this point but my thinking is.

- He's raised and so has at least part of it (probably Ax)

- If I reraise allin he can either think I'm bluffing or he has a better hand and call or he can fold and I pick up the pot and move on

- If I call the turn then I am less likely to get all his chips and I open the door to some sort of ludicrous beat where I end up putting my chips in while behind.

I seldom allow my big hands to the river because it on the one hand allows for the ****ing river and more importantly removes the element of hope and uncertainty which I think allows the fish to call with top pair type hands with draw heavy boards on show.

There's more to it than this but I'm struggling to articulate, I'll keep an eye out for a hand that demonstrates what I'm saying.

Marm · #12 (**permalink**) 03-07-2006, 02:20 PM

He's got an ace, if hes got Aj, A9, or A7, there are only 2 cards in the deck that hurt me. I'm not going to give up a lot of EV just because I'm playing scared. I called hoping for an overcall by the other guy, that missed. I can't start being paranoid about the tiny chances.

Irexes · #13 (**permalink**) 03-07-2006, 02:36 PM

I'm not sure that it is giving up EV, I think there is more chance of getting action from him on the turn than the river. The overbet from the bb is a fair point but I don't think he's coming along very often.

Couple this with the few times that you are beaten on the river you are going to pay and I'm happy to push the turn.

Trouble is this looks like results based stuff from me, but I genuinely thought push turn as I read it cold, as it forces him to make a mistake at the time when he is most likely to bite.

Irexes · #14 (**permalink**) 03-07-2006, 02:39 PM

Just to add that while the Ax seems far and away the most likely there is also a flush draw out there for the crank who likes to gamble.

Aces-o-8s · #15 (**permalink**) 03-07-2006, 04:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jason75

Gotta raise that turn (all in looks like), you've effectively given him a free card to beat you (which he does!!).

I think that given the development of the hand, on the river this is a calling hand at best. There were a lot of opponents going in, so I've got to be thinking someone may be sitting on a set, and when the board pairs I think "shit" and just call. There's so many cards we don't want to see on the river . . . . a ten, queen, king, spade, board pair . . . that's why we have to raise on the turn. Of course he probably calls anyway and we lose. C'est la vie.

IMO - what Jason said. Scary - like he was reading my mind

Danikar · #16 (**permalink**) 03-07-2006, 04:48 PM

I would have made a large reraise on the turn. You made your hand and the guy is betting into you. he has a good hand, but u have the nuts right now. He also has given you plenty of chips. No reason to take any more of the poor mans money. Slowplaying here is very dangerous. There isnt much danger of a flush draw but it is something you should be thinking about with that straight in your hand. All in all it might have been a good play just to call the river and lose the hand too. In that case it probably would just be another bad beat story. Guy catches miracle after miracle =)

Beavis68 · #17 (**permalink**) 03-07-2006, 05:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Marm

He's got an ace, if hes got Aj, A9, or A7, there are only 2 cards in the deck that hurt me. I'm not going to give up a lot of EV just because I'm playing scared. I called hoping for an overcall by the other guy, that missed. I can't start being paranoid about the tiny chances.

nice to see you are keeping an open mind.

Marm · #18 (**permalink**) 03-07-2006, 07:00 PM

You guys are really wanting me to push allin with a made hand in fear of a two outer when I could possibly stack two players?

Rex, this was 2.5k person MTT, not a SNG, and early too. Winning a big pot is more important to me than just winning a pot, when the opportunity exists.

Beavis68 · #19 (**permalink**) 03-07-2006, 07:04 PM

I dont think I would push all in there on the turn either.

Irexes · #20 (**permalink**) 03-08-2006, 01:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Marm

You guys are really wanting me to push allin with a made hand in fear of a two outer when I could possibly stack two players?

Rex, this was 2.5k person MTT, not a SNG, and early too. Winning a big pot is more important to me than just winning a pot, when the opportunity exists.

More so in an MTT than a SnG. You can win a SnG by winning only a couple of decent hands and if he hits the boat with a call on the turn then play another one.

In an MTT you need to win 10 or 20 big hands where there is a small chance of being outdrawn. However when you add them all together it's one of these small chances that often knock you out.

My MTT strategy is to try and reduce all these chances wherever I can and get the other guy to make mistakes and put his chips in while behind. That's not to say I'm passive, I'm not I'm very aggressive both with made hands and semibluffs, but I'm happy to take down pots earlier rather than try and milk it (the exception being when I'm shortstacked or close to it). Obviously a measure of luck is involved in reaching the end of MTTs but I think you can shave enough small % edges here and there to radically improve your chances and this kind of hand is one of them.

And I still think that he's more likely to call an allin on the turn with a hand that's behind than he is with one on the river.

(again I've got to say that the flush draw is a big factor in pushing for me, moreso than the possible boat)