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Hand with +ve/-ve Expectation
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01-22-2006, 06:29 AM
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PokerForums God
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Hand with +ve/-ve Expectation
For those who either use Poker Tracker or are amazingly dilligent in recordig their own results:
Hands I never play seem to have an expectation of 0.10 BB/hand or there abouts (this makes sense as it is 1/10th of a blind and I play 10 handed games).
The only hands which I have VPI$P over 20% of the time with a lower exectation than that are:
AQo = -0.68 BB/hand (VP$IP - 80%)
AJo = -0.51 BB/hand (VP$IP - 33%)
KQo = -0.29BB/hand (VP$IP - 61%)
I find this quite surprising since my basic method of playing these hands are:
AQo - raise but fold to reraise
AJo - only raise from late position - fold to reraise
KQo - only call in mid-late position - fold to any raise
Is there something wrong with this?
Which hands do others find there biggest losers, or maybe surprise winners?
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01-22-2006, 08:47 AM
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change my title babo
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Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 6,758
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Post some of your losing AQo-KQo hands where you got outplayed.(ie not losing to a guy who made 2 pair on the river) That's the only way we can tell if you are playing them wrong. In some games, AQo should be folded UTG or UTG+1(gasp? maybe i'm wrong, i'm the only person i know who does it)
BTW its +EV( positive expectation) and -EV(negative expectation)
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01-22-2006, 09:48 AM
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Chaser
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Join Date: Sep 2005
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Are you sure you have enough results? These hands should not be losing hands, unless you are losing overall, and even then I doubt it. Furthermore, preflop only details is not going to help us determine what is wrong. I could play 89s like you play AQ preflop and still maybe eek out a profit and I could play a hand like QQ perfect preflop but make serious errors postflop (aka the most serious kind which is folding when you are winning no the river) and be losing EV overall
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01-22-2006, 10:40 AM
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PokerForums God
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AQo
This is based on 172 hands of AQo and 18k hands total. Incidentally my EV with AKo is only 0.4 BB/hand - is this low also? My overall win rate is 3BB/100 hands.
I tend to lose with these hands when I am in a heads up pot and an A or Q doesn't hit. If I make a continuation bet and am called I don't generally bet again or call a raise. If I don't make a cont. bet and opponent bets I generally fold.
My problem is I think it is most likely my opponent has called with a pocket pair and if no A or Q hits, I am losing. If I have AQ I will represent a K hitting perhaps. But find it hard to call down/bet out river on A high.
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01-22-2006, 10:41 AM
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PokerForums God
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Join Date: Oct 2005
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Infact I have PT stats from another site where I played 4.5k hands at a win rate of 10.5bb/100 and Aqo was even losing for me here too!
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01-22-2006, 11:59 AM
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I donk off Wota's $$$
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Join Date: Dec 2004
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Quote:
AQo - raise but fold to reraise
AJo - only raise from late position - fold to reraise
KQo - only call in mid-late position - fold to any raise
Is there something wrong with this?
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AQo, this is a tough hand to play,
I would never raise with any hand and then fold for 1 more bet pre-flop.
Conversely I would make sure you are folding this hand to a raise in front of you from a decent player and re-raising a loose raiser. probably the biggest mistake people make with this hand is flat calling a raise
AJo, you should be raising this hand from middle poisiton and either raising or folding it from EP, if 3 or more people have limped in then just limp in
KQo, this hand should be played similarly to AJ, either raise or fold and only limp in family pots
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01-22-2006, 12:24 PM
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PokerForums God
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are we talking about limit or nl?
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01-22-2006, 12:29 PM
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Check Raiser
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Join Date: Dec 2005
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Beavis68
are we talking about limit or nl?
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Just what I was thinking - it makes such a difference
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01-22-2006, 12:58 PM
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PokerForums God
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Sorry this is NL.
Stevo, in Limit you are probably right about not folding to a raise but in NL if I raise to 3BB and am reraised to 6BB, I fold simply because I Could be up against AK, KK or QQ and have no way of knowing which so I want to avoid playing post flop not knowig where I stand. If I occassionaly fold to AQ, JJ, TT or whatever then I have to live with it.
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01-22-2006, 01:47 PM
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NL20 Grinder...
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Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Portland, OR
Posts: 7,523
Limits Played: $0.10-$0.25 NL
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by WotaWaster
Sorry this is NL.
Stevo, in Limit you are probably right about not folding to a raise but in NL if I raise to 3BB and am reraised to 6BB, I fold simply because I Could be up against AK, KK or QQ and have no way of knowing which so I want to avoid playing post flop not knowig where I stand. If I occassionaly fold to AQ, JJ, TT or whatever then I have to live with it.
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Yeah, but what NL level are you playing at? It seems very -EV to fold for 3 more BB with AQ unless you are playing at a very high NL level or a very tight aggressive table. Personally I think you should try seeing more flops for that 3 more BB to see what happens. Have you payed attention to the flop when you fold these hands? How often would you have connected well enough to move on (not necessarily win) to the later betting rounds? Also if you are getting reraised so often with them, perhaps you should take Steve-Os advice (even if it is Limit) and fold them early on and be more inclined to raise later.
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