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Thread: Risk of Ruin

  1. 01-11-2006 #1
    PowerfulRog
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    Default Risk of Ruin

    I was using This Required Bankroll Calculator and it has "risk of ruin" percentage on it. I was wondering, what is a standard ROR?

    Also, how many hours of play are required for a standard sample size of hourly rate?
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  2. 01-11-2006 #2
    bonchkid
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    99.0 at the lowest
    “There's no sense in being precise when you don't even know what you're talking about.” - John von Neumann
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  3. 01-11-2006 #3
    Beavis68
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    that is a terrible tool because it doesn't account for how many hands you play per hour, it should be in x/100 hands.
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  4. 01-11-2006 #4
    Marm
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    Default

    I wouldn't bother using it without 10,000 hands at the minimum. And unless you have been using PT, I doubt your SD/hand or SD/100hands, is accurate, because without a PT-like tool, you will be tracking per session or per hour, not per x hands. SD/hand is such a pain in the ass to compute without specialized software, that using that tool is pointless.

    Anyways, if you have an accurate SD and WR, then you can use the formula from Malmuth found here , its >95% Risk of ruin. Its very simple to do with a regular calculator. Just make sure you use WR/100 and SD/100... Thats the most accurate way.
    Last edited by Marm; 01-11-2006 at 06:30 PM.
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  5. 01-11-2006 #5
    PowerfulRog
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    Default

    I have PT. I do not have 10k hands yet though.
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  6. 01-11-2006 #6
    Marm
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    Default

    You can do it with less than 10k hands, but your sample size is so small that what would be normally small variances have a much greater affect on your results. 10k befor eyou can get a decent enough sample size to have some confidence in it, 50k before you can fully trust it.
    Marm is back, maybe. Been off for 3 years. Rusty as Hell.

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  7. 01-11-2006 #7
    Beavis68
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    it doesnt matter, that tool is worthless for online, your variance and WR with be 2-3x online and that tool doesnt compensate, or if it works for onine it doesnt work for live.
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  8. 01-12-2006 #8
    xxdemexx
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    not a great tool...

    by the time you can fill in the boxes.. you probably know the answer....
    See me playing $10/$20NL like it was play money

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  9. 01-12-2006 #9
    PJ of TheGame
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    Beav... it doesn't matter how fast you play the hands... just how many you play! There is no difference in ROR if I play 10k hands in one hour or over a year.
    -You may not know this, but poker is a game of incomplete information.
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  10. 01-12-2006 #10
    Barbourman
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    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by PJ of TheGame
    Beav... it doesn't matter how fast you play the hands... just how many you play! There is no difference in ROR if I play 10k hands in one hour or over a year.
    It does matter if you play so fast that you are taking missteps.
    Chuck Norris put the "laughter" in manslaughter..
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