Here's a thing I've been mulling over for a while. I've been on a good streak of late, yet playing the same as usual. The streak will end. But why did it start and is it just variance doing it's thing?


There are days when I win and days when I lose. There are days when I play well and days when I play poorly.

However it is not the case that I always win through good play or lose through bad play.

Now sometimes when I get knocked out of a tourney or lose my stack in ring I think to myself, "that was terrible play" (I'm not necessarily referring to the final hand, but my play throughout a session). Sometimes I finish, maybe having won, or maybe having lost and I think, "I was on fire there.".

The thing is though that my VPIP remains the same (depending on the game format) whether I feel I have played well or poorly. I have played enough hands that my starting hand selection is pretty much nailed down, with the appropriate flourishes. I can recognize and run through the options for almost every situation without much in the way of effort. Pot odds, check. Implied odds, check. All the usual reading, check, check, check.

So why do I sometimes play well and sometimes poorly? First thing is to set aside the cards, they are irrelevant to the quality of play. If I get AA and get busted on a flop of KJ4 calling a push from QTo that's not bad play. Nor is it good play if I make a bluff and get called then suck out with a runner-runner boat. Obviously life is a whole easier with good cards that stand up, but long-term, poker is about playing well in every situation.

To take an analogy, I used to play football (that's the one with the round ball that you kick with your foot) and I'd have good games and bad games. I'd turn up each week in pretty much the same shape and try to do the same things. Some weeks I'd be controlling the ball like it was on a string and winning every header (I was a centre-half) and other weeks I'd struggle to get more than a touch on the damn thing. Part of this is quality of opponents, but I definately had weeks where I was in form and weeks when I was not.

Now can this be applied to poker? Often streaks are attributed to luck (good or bad), but perhaps another factor is form. There is obviously a base level of technical proficiency in poker as with any game or sport. And in poker luck clearly is a big factor. But perhaps "form" is the intangible and tiny x% that makes a difference in the way you read an opponent or pick the spot to make that key bluff. Perhaps it is form which turns a good session into a great one or an in the money finish to a final table. Conversely does a player who is in a rich run of form manage to break even despite the beats or dodge the bullets or call the bluff with 2nd pair?

I'm not suggesting for a second that anything is more important than knowing a technically correct way to play poker (there are many) or that luck isn't a massive factor.

But I've had days when all the pieces seem to fall into place and regardless of the cards it's going to take something pretty dramatic for me to lose my stack. I've also had days when all the pocket rockets in the world aren't going to be enough to keep me sitting in the chair. Yet as far as the numbers are concerned or the way I'm making my decisions I'm not doing anything different.

Most of the time the difference between success and failure is a combination of knowledge and luck, but perhaps the other factor which sometimes tips the balance is whether or not I am in good form.

I can sum up that lengthy post in 1 word; FOCUS

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Absotively posolutely Steve-O.

u Rio Ferdinand in disguise?

no course not, u said u have good games

Damn. Caught me.

Steve-O is Roy Keane by the way.

And Bonch is Ronaldo.

i find that after a couple of good days i have some bad days, often because i get over confident...and then i go back to playing more correctly, have a few more good days, and repeat pattern...

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I love him who is ashamed when the dice fall in his favour and who then asks: Am I then a cheat? for he wants to perish.

Hey I'm way older than Roy Keane! I could be Raul? maybe Fernando Morientes, that way you don't think I'm lying since he is not a superstar

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For poker news, strategy, and more, check out my daily column at Examiner.com

I call that loss of focus "winners tilt" because it usually hits me after playing a lot, making big additions to my bankroll. I am getting pretty good at recognizing it, and reducing my play. Since I got back from Costa Rica I have mostly played cheap MTTs and SnGs. The few times I have played ring have been costly. Fortunately most of th players are so bad it wasn't TOO costly - especially after boni.

what do you consider cheap MTT's and SNGs?

up to $5.50, but I am mostly playing $1 MTTs. I did have a good O8b session last night but the only table I could get on was a .5/1.