I have been arguing with the brick-heads on Pokery Pages - PP.0001 really needs to find that place - about tournament theory, and the roll of pot odds in tournaments. I posted this and these guys cannot understand why you would call in this spot when you have a 45-55% chance of going bust. Here is the Poker Pages link.

I think this mindset is related to some major misunderstandings about the nature of poker tournaments. Some of this stuff is still debateable - even the stuff that really isn't.

1. Not properly valuing your starting chips. Your starting chips are worth your buy-in, based on your skill level, doubling is worth about 2x your buy-in, maybe more for a great player, maybe less for a bad player.

2. Not understanding EV. Not knowing core gambling concepts, so of course they cannot be applied properly. They think that this call is a "gamble" not realizing that you are gambling any time chips go into the pot, even more so in a tournament.

3. Viewing tournaments as closed-ended single occuring events. They believe EV does not apply because there is no long-term. This is a very common perception.

4. Not realizing the value of chips relative to the blinds and your opponents chip stack. Going from T1500 to T3000 in level 1 gives you much more power than doing the same in level 7.

5. Over estimating their own ability to accumulate chips. xxxDEMExxx has posted some thoughts on this. After some thought, it seems obvious that the average player only has a 50% chance to double up in a tournament. The WORST player probably still has a 40% chance, and the BEST player can probably never have more than 60% chance, with most of the field being in the 45-55% range.

6. Not realizing the increasing danger of a shrinking chip stack. Smaller chip stack gives you fewer options, less ability to protect your pots, and changes what hands you can play and how you should play them-and most don't understand this either. Folding a 50/50 hand after getting 20% of your stack in and getting 2:1 on your money hasn't decreased you risk, it has increased it. It has also decrease your rewards.

7. The true nature of luck in a tournament. You will only get x chance to get your money in the pot in favorable spots where your opponent is also willing to put money in the pot. You may get a better hand, but that doesn't mean anyone will play with you. This gets back too Helmuth and his 80% favorite comment. How many times will you even get a chance 2:1 favorite in a hand when your opponent is willing to put all him money in?

8. The escalating blinds. If you wait around for that "lock" hand, how far will your stack have fallen? What will be the value of doubling at that point?

Of all of these, I think #5 is the biggest. If you come to the realization that you only have a 52% chance of doubling up, getting 1.5:1 on a 50/50 hand starts to look a little better. If you don't realize your true odds of doubling up, you cannot properly apply gambling concepts, or come to grips with the other factors that rule tournament poker.

Now, I am no wiz when it comes to applying this stuff, but I love the theory.

Very interesting, I'll post some thoughts on these later as I'm in a tourney now and haven't doubled up yet

i find theese discussions very interesting. although i also rarely apply them in a tourny.

need to get solid with more basic stuff first

i hate dan's raise. i would just limp there. maybe i misread, but i didnt see the villian's stack and dont know how much it is to call. the villain CANT have anything here. its just not possible he has a good hand. he wouldnt of limped behind 5 limpers with a good hand.

dan has the roll and has the odds and its probably better for him to double up or bust. i like the call i like your reasoning. people that post on pp are idiots nothing new there

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I don't think he was saying "always raise limpers with KJs".

He was just showing a move that pro's make (hopefully we all do) sometimes when the conditions are right - here he had enough info on the players and enough of a hand.

I think the bankroll discusions are irrelevant, I am not playing $10,000 buy-in tournies, but I can still apply this to the $1-$11 dollar tournaments.

If you have to save 3 years to play the WSOP ME, not sure what advice to give that person. I doubt the person is really playing it with a +expectation in the first place, and just wants to say the played the Big One. Kind of like a safari or a trip up Everest.

I really must get his book..he seems to play around with similar ideas to the stuff I arrived at.

Mathematically tournaments are closed systems (in particular the total number of chips is fixed - ignoring rebuys). I'd put money on most of the pros knowing the way to optimise tournament performance- what you see in the Harrington example is key. He might flower it with tells and such but the bottom line is that if there is a good chance he hasn't got AA/KK and he's offerring a double up at around 50/50 - then you have to take it.

Doubling your stack size is more important than getting knocked out

The major mistake people make in tourneys is that they don't hit the all-in button soon enough and in particular they avoid high volume 45% positions when the blinds are small compared to thier stack. They let their stack dwindle to the point where an all-in is needed to survive - by which time they need two or three successful all-ins to get back in the running.

This is largely what Be is saying too...........

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See me playing $10/$20NL like it was play money

http://video.google.co.uk/videoplay?...405&q=xxdemexx

Doberman: "but Sarge, isn't poker gambling and just luck?"
Sgt. Bilko:" not the way I play it"

yes, but you said it well, and some of your posts really made me think that stuff through.

thx for telling me dan doesnt always raise over limpers with KJs. in that spot i dont like his play... seeing a flop in position with lots of limpers with KJs is alot more +ev than raising i think there.

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it's better to be pissed off than pissed on
missot on stars. come to my poker vent server! (its a voice chat program)

i have nothing to add to whats been said already (obviously if u knew me!)

what i am glad of though is that i found this forum before the other one.

seems to be a group of guys that think a little like me - "im the best and noone is gonna tell me otherwise and if they do then to hell with them"
thankfully im turning away from that train of thought every day i play.

if i could only take it all in and actually put it into practice now.........

Well EV is all well and good but if your not careful it becomes a poor excuse for putting your chips in the pot without optimal value for your hand.Given the situation in live play with the proper read and knowlege of your opponent it might be a good call but to me its still borderline,as your read could be dead wrong.I understand your point but there are just to many hands that this guy could show up with to not justify an all in call with k-j at this stage of a tournement.As far as online i would never make this call,if anyone thinks that your putting someone on the range of hand your talking about with any certainty in online tourneys to make this call profitable then show me how.You just cant get enough information in the online game without seeing a players reaction to the actions of the game.And while i know many of you guys analyze betting patterns and all ,you just cant do it.

All the talk of doubling up at this stage and having your stack ground out are valid points,but the fact remains that with blinds at 1-200 and a stack of 10500 it is just to much gamble to be taking with k-j a very marginal hand and most of us cant read players like DH can.lol

The guy shows up with 6-7 OFF and thats great but i wouldn't count on this happening in to many situations especially online and while your EV value might say its worth the risk your still most likely getting your money in on a situation that has you a big underdog in the hand from a pot odds standpoint.

And remember you can't win it unless your in it and i can think of 20 different spots i would rather be getting my money in on than this one.I think if you really study the risk reward of making this call in an online tourney you can not escape the fact that it is not an optimal situation to be getting your money in.Now i will say in live play being able to have more observation of players actions and reactions it might be a decent play but i still don't like it.Just my humble opinion and it could be wrong.lol