I dug up my copy of Poker essays, since I can't remember where I put "Gambling Theory". In it Malmuth uses a simple formula to calculate your absolute BankRoll (BR) required for a given Win Rate (WR) and Standard Deviation (SD, a measure of short term luck found by taking the SqrRt of your variance, which is found by averaging and then some of your past results).
The forumula is thus: BR = (9 SD^2)/(4 WR)
In my experience, and from PT data, most winnign players have around a 3 bb/100 (generalized) WR, and a SD of about 20 bb/100 (again, generalized). SO If we plug in the numbers...
BR = (9 x 20^2) / (4 x 3) = (9x 400) / 12 = 300 bb
This tells us, if you play your normal game, this is the theoretical worst that you can do. Meaning you can lose 300 bb before you even post a winning session.
Thats the short version of about 50 pages in His books, there are quite a few little If's there, and even he admits this is just an approximation of reality.
Last edited by Marm; 05-14-2005 at 07:42 PM.
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