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  #1 (permalink)  
Old 07-19-2006, 09:34 PM
Fish Food
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
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Default Long Term Profits

I was wondering how much money in the long run you should lose to bad beats. I've been playing poker for 6 months online playing 5/10 cent tables and I cashed out 400$ in two months twice. Now for the past four months I can't seem to outweight my badbeats. For example I'm playing right now and I have 275 hands dealt to me and 7 showdowns of 18 won. I've played 74 of my hands and I only play good hands. I record my stats in excel but I keep losing with hands like ka an kq to kj or a4. The other day I lost with 99 to k2.
The flop was 926 and then kk. I mean four months of bad beats I have learned to stay calm and not go on tilt as I have only had to refill my account four times of about fifty dollars. My question is am I losing because I'm playing solid poker against too many weak players and if so should I go to higher limits. The reason for this is that I have went to higher limits and I do get bad beats but not as much. Thanks!
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  #2 (permalink)  
Old 07-19-2006, 09:52 PM
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Join Date: Dec 2005
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Quote:
Originally Posted by syphality
My question is am I losing because I'm playing solid poker against too many weak players and if so should I go to higher limits. The reason for this is that I have went to higher limits and I do get bad beats but not as much. Thanks!
Bad beats happen in poker. Its the long run that evens them and the luck factor out. Post some of your hand histories on here and we can let you know how you played them.

DONT go to higher limits, you will lose your money faster since you dont have a big enough bankroll for it, you need in theory between 2000-3000 BigBlinds in NL, and about 300 BigBets in Limit.

So for 5c10c NL you would need around $200-$300.... its fair enough going to higher limits if youve made say 15% on your bankroll in one day, but I would only invest one buyin at a higher level and If i lost if I would quit and go back to 5c10c.
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  #3 (permalink)  
Old 07-19-2006, 10:00 PM
Fish Food
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
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Well when I think about it I do better at SNG. I play the 5 and 10 dollar ones and on average I place in a money position about 70% of the time. I've played about five 20$ sng's and placed 111,33. I don't think it is my style of play that is cramping me , but I look at long term in months. Sng are the only reason why I really don't have to refill my bank account but when you lose the past 15 of your tourny's to bad beats it is upsetting. I'm about 1-15 for going all in and the player has the better hand then me.
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Old 07-20-2006, 08:04 AM
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My advice would be to start recording how many SNGs you play and where you finish, you need a lot of stats to really notice how good a player you are.

Youll be looking for In the money finishes, and your Return on Investment..

So say you play 1000 SnGs at the $5 + .50 level. You would of invested $5500.

A single win nets $25, 2nd is $15, 3rd is $10

So to make a decent profit say $500-$1000, you would need returns of $6000-6500.

If you always finished 3rd when you cashed, just as an example. You would have to finish 3rd, 600 times to make $6000 which is $500 profit. However if you finished 3rd 50% of the time and won the other 50% you were in the money then you would make much more.
  • Say you play 1000, investing $5500.
  • You were in the money 30% of the time, and all your finishes were equal, that means you would cash 300 times.
  • You would cash 100 wins, 100 2nds and 100 3rds.
  • 100 wins = $2500
  • 100 2nds = $1500
  • 100 3rds = $1000
This would give you $5000 back... so you would be looking at getting as many wins as you can, I mean thats only.... a 10% win rate... if you could get this to say 15% win then you would easily be making a slight profit... I could go on and on and on....
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