Maybe this needs to be in the river rats section but I've never seen a discussion on this so I'm curious. We like to hear about rushes we were on or have seen others have, but never hear much about the running bad periods.

How do you really determine if running bad is from play or cold cards?

What's you're longest "bad run"?

How did/do you get through them?

Does/did your style of play change during those times, or did you play the way you normally do and it turned around?

Discussion, comments, thoughts?

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DN's running bad right now with tournaments, i think he only made 1 final table this year and i read in one of his columns in a magazine that he tried to change his strategy and play like sum of the other pro's that were making the final tables, untill he just gave up trying to replicate sum1 else. This article told me that poker pretty much fucks with your confidence. You can not make one mistake and you can still lose, while with another sport if your good at it, you know your good at it. No confidence leds to negative thinking which leds to bad play, which leds to losing money, which brings up the question am i really a good player? and my answer to that question is, i don't give a fuck anymore, to me it's only about the money, and i'm glad i ran really bad for about 6 months because i think i'm a better player because of it and now when i get rivered, it doesn't affect me cause i've seen it many times before. everyone needs to go broke at sum point..so embrace the shitty cards...

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stop worrying so much and just let go.

I dig out PT, and review all the hands that I lost money on. I replay the hand, and If I see a screw up, I then use the filters to find similar types of hands, win or lose, to see if I've got a leak. If Their just bad luck..... well....

Use a graphing program to look at your WR vs # hands. If the downslope is steeper than your normal WR upslope, then its most likely running bad. But if it is a more gradual slope, then that indicates a leak that you are compensating for , but still needs plugged. In english.. the graph should have a gentle up to the right grade to it, with the occasional (or lengthy) big crater in it. it should not be a gentle rolling up and down. When you lose pots, you should be losing big ones. Sorta.

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I think running bad occures the most in limit, and 10 max tables. simply b/c you have less controll of the outcome, whrere as in NL, and short handed your actiond dictate the results more.

Attached Images

 

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may be a dumb question but what graphing programs are available?

Do you mean the "converging bb/100" graph?

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BB is t100
Preflop: Hero is UTG with :3d :5d,
Hero raises to t500

Ditto. I would like to grab one if they are out there and readily available.


As far as running bad, I am doing it now. I think it's the cards, but I find myself adding to it by really donking up a few here and there. I also try to replay my losing hands......as well as my winning hands to see if i played them right. I look at the winners also, because you will often find mistakes where you got lucky to take the pot.

I try not to change my game, but this morning (-13BB) I realized I was limping with some marginal hands trying to make something happen. I need to focus and just ride this out. I am barely even at .25/.50 through about 2500 hands. I am sitting around 2BB/100 after crushing the level below. This is after running at about 10BB/100 for the first 1000 or so. Unfortunately my sample sizes are too small to know if its a run, or if I am in over my head. I tend to think it's a run, because in general I am playing good fundamental poker.

You regularly hear about pros who were running cold for anything from 6 months to 2 years. And they all seem to have gotten through it. The hardest is believing in your game and not trying to force things. And over a period of a year, that can be hard.

For myself I feel that putting your chips in there with the best hand is probably as good as you can do in these circumstances.

-V

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overcards.com has poker grapher available for a free download.

Marm when you're talking about looking at a graph should I be looking at ALL my hands or just at a specific limit? I graphed all my hands from .05/.10 up to .5/1 about 47K hands and it looks pretty good.

Just my .5/1 however (little over 20K hands) looks like when you see people on tv giving a polygraph test and the needle goes haywire with certain questions. I'm trying to determine if this is just variance or I just haven't figured out .5/1 yet. My last 4K+ hands on UB have been killing me, like I said in another thread QQ right now is one of my bigger money loosing hands, AK is a loosing hand currently on that site also. I'll look at certain sites (Prima, Stars for ex.) where I'm in the mid-2 BB/100 but lately I can't put together a decent winning session, even my good hands are loosing. I've played about 28 sessions so far and about 35% were winning. So I'm wondering if it's me or just the cards.

My numbers look pretty much consistant with all the other sites and limits I've played (although I'm making more steal attempts and my PF raise is higher on UB, but my "won $ SD" is lower than usual.) Is it possible I'm just getting outdrawn more often lately? Is there a way I can see this with PT?

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can someone tell me how to post a screenshot of my graph? just downloaded the program and would appreciate some feedback. (Pok, If you prefer I can use a diff thread instead of hijacking. It just seems relevant to this discussion)