Great, 1 in 100,000 chance.
So I'm playing heads up, as usual against inferior opponents.
The first tournament was a bad beat but a run-of-the-mill bad beat, the kind that happens to you about 10 times a day if you're playing a lot and you are angry as heck but you get over it maybe.
I get him in perfect position, 30 minutes of playing I've done well to trap him, but blinds are higher now, I push him all-in with A-K - he calls with A-7, yay, should win. And anyway I want to win 70% of my heads up matches so I have better than 70% odds, that's the kind of all-in I want to see. He hits the 7 on the turn. I lose the tournament. Oh by the way for good measure the last chips were lost pushing with Q-10 and he had J-10, of course he hit the jack. Riiight now we're talking about like a 5% chance of him winning both of those hands.
Ok whatever, move on, typical bad beat.
Next time I lose, Q-K against J-Q and I've top paired the flop, big betting, I'm a bit worried about A-Q but, you know, I figure I got this. River is a jack. He hits two pair and wins. That's like about a 5% chance, ok 7.5% I guess, whatever.
Now that was bad, I mean it was really bad, but it kept getting worse than that by far. You'll see each tournament loss was worse than the one before.
Now next time, set of jacks on the flop become a full house, jacks full of queens on the river. He has a queen, beats me with queens full of jacks. A two-outer, 5%.
That was really not so bad, though, not at all, not compared to the very next tournament I lost (I did, by the way, win four in a row between losses 2 and 3...).
Pocket 9s, I raise, he calls. Flop comes Q-9-K, YES!!! He probably hit too so great for me. He bets. I just call. Q comes on the turn, sweet, no straight worry now, FULL HOUSE! He bets and I call. River comes, queen. Yup, you guessed it -- he hit the 1% chance, a runner-runner quads.
Are you freakin' kidding me? I did the math on those bad beats in a row, and it's more than a 1 in 100,000 chance that you'd lose four tournaments in a row with those kind of odds to win, in three cases much better than 90% odds and still losing. Now if that happened out of 100 tournaments, and not sequentially, ok well that does happen. But to lose in a row like that is the kind of bad beat that has people complaining about a site being rigged.
Am I saying that? No. I don't do that. I'm just saying that's the worst sequence of events I've ever had playing poker in my 5 years. I was just telling my friend Erik YESTERDAY that if I have a full house get beat by runner-runner quads how devastating that would be. It's just impossibly unlikely. I wanted to see that first queen, that was GOOD, because there was a king up there and there was no way he was going to call a big bet with just the queen. But to have him hit another queen on the river? You have to be kidding me. And let's face it the river screwed me no matter what because if he had a king, I have a full house queens full of 9s now, not 9s full of queens, and he has a full house queens full of kings. So that runner-runner queens, which was a 1% chance, was bad no matter whether he had the king OR the queen. But the fact he did have the queen means there were only 2 left anyway and he hit them both.
I just don't know what to say. I've not been able to win any money in a week now because on a scale of 1 to 100 the site is giving me about a 10 on luck. Like it would nearly be impossible to be more unlucky than I've been. I should be enjoying a 9-straight tournament victories streak against soft competition where I had them in a perfect spot. Instead I am 5 for 9? Yeah ok....
It's one of those things where I used to say, "Well ok so I've played well enough to win 70% easily, that's great, I'm sure I'll win 70% of the time in the future." But nope, it never happens, yet more bad beats keep coming and I start wondering why do I have to be the one on this site who can't get an even shake of the luck? Didn't happen on Poker Room.
Last edited by JonathanLB; 03-13-2008 at 01:20 AM.
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