This waS posted by Ed Miller (of SSH acclaim) on another forum recently. His point to this post was to learn to use bayes thereom to predict outcomes of unknown events. Instead of looking at pure theroetical probabality, it looks at All possible scenarios and then you can figure possible outcomes from the likelyhood of the scenarios. Of course if this definition of Bayes is way off, someobdy please correct me. Either way this may help some people start to think differently. And please, those that knwo the solutions and applications of Bayes right off the bat, let others figure it out.

Heres the scenario:

Your "friend" convinces you to that a game of Russian Roulette would be a swell idea. You agree. He takes a 6 shot revolver and loads 2 bullets into the gun in adjacent chambers. He then spins and places the gun to his head and pulls the trigger. *CLICK*. He now hands you the gun.

1) Do you spin the chambers? Or do you just pull the trigger? WHY?

2) If he splatters his gourd all over the wall, it is now your turn. Do you spin or pull. WHY?

3) What about Questions 1 & 2 if the bullets were NOT in adjacent chambers?

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Can you post bayes theorom?

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“There's no sense in being precise when you don't even know what you're talking about.” - John von Neumann

Bonch, we're not talking EV here.....

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Oh, I read that wrong, lemme see...

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“There's no sense in being precise when you don't even know what you're talking about.” - John von Neumann

2 couldnt be simpler, if u spin you deserve to die

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IIAv8tionII - ME
Av8tion - SCAMMER

Online Tournament Wins: 11

Why av8?

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Ok, two bullets that are adjacent.
XXOOOO|OXXOOO|OOXXOO|OOOXXO|OOOOXX|XOOOOX
Friend pull and is safe.
First chamber is the shot fired.
OXXOOO|OOXXOO||OOOXXO|OOOOXX
I'm not spinning if he is safe because I'll be safe 3/4 of the time.
If he's dead and I still have to play.
XXOOOO|XOOOOX
It's a 50/50 shot to die.
If you spin its a 1/6 shot to die.
YOU HAVE TO SPIN IF HE DIES.

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“There's no sense in being precise when you don't even know what you're talking about.” - John von Neumann

#3 I guess it depends on how they were placed? I could figure it out if I had time/desire.

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“There's no sense in being precise when you don't even know what you're talking about.” - John von Neumann

crap, i was thinking opposite.... that would be suicidal to spin in that case....

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IIAv8tionII - ME
Av8tion - SCAMMER

Online Tournament Wins: 11

anyways, if he's dead, just dont do it, he'll never know

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IIAv8tionII - ME
Av8tion - SCAMMER

Online Tournament Wins: 11