Bayes Thereom - Page 3

Marm · #21 (**permalink**) 01-15-2005, 11:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Av8tor009

now, i will aim my sight to #1.... a miss
unspun, your chances of living still suck- 3 in 5
spun, they still suck, slightly better- 2 in 3

MATH TIME
unspun 3/5 = 60%
spun 2/3 = 67%

it's only a 7% difference, but it IS YOUR LIFE... so once again, an extra 7% chance of living is kinda good

Your using Probabilty, not Bayes here.

The unspun numbers are wrong.

Marm · #22 (**permalink**) 01-15-2005, 11:27 PM

Allright you sleep deprived people, I'm gonna give some otheres a chance before I reveal the answers. That, and I'm very tired myself, so I need a littel sobriety to make sure my numbers are right.

bonchkid · #23 (**permalink**) 01-15-2005, 11:33 PM

Dude, tell me what I'm doing wrong, cuz it seems SO right.

Av8tor009 · #24 (**permalink**) 01-15-2005, 11:37 PM

dam, math is wrong

#1
4 possible unspun outcomes
only 1 kills you, thats 75% life
spun there are 6 and 2 kill you 67% life

#2
unspun, 2 combos, 1 kill you, 50% life
spin, it's pure probability again, 83.3% life

#3
9 possible Bayes' combos

MISS
unspun 6 combos 3 of which kill you, 50% life
spin, 9 combos 3 of which kill you, 67% life

BANG
unspun, duh 100% life
spun, simple probability says 83.3%

Av8tor009 · #25 (**permalink**) 01-15-2005, 11:38 PM

bonch go on AIM and ill go over the figures with you before i pass out

bonchkid · #26 (**permalink**) 01-15-2005, 11:43 PM

You're not considering the postion of the second bullet.

Av8tor009 · #27 (**permalink**) 01-15-2005, 11:43 PM

where?

Av8tor009 · #28 (**permalink**) 01-15-2005, 11:45 PM

#1 and #2 combos
XXOOOO
XOOOOX
OOOOXX
OOOXXO
OOXXOO
OXXOOO

6 possibles

#3 combos- nonadjacent
XOXOOO
XOOXOO
XOOOXO
OXOXOO
OXOOXO
OXOOOX
OOXOXO
OOXOOX
OOOXOX

9 possibles

Av8tor009 · #29 (**permalink**) 01-15-2005, 11:47 PM

also remember that if ur friend dies, there is only one bullet, so we move to probability for spun combos

the alex · #30 (**permalink**) 01-16-2005, 01:16 AM

#1
SPIN= 67% to live
PULL= 75% to live

Of the 4 open chambers, only one is on the left of a bullet. I pull the trigger.

#2
It doesn't matter because the first and second bullet were even odds to fire. The bullet that hit him could've been either or. Yes, you're 50% to live while spinning gives you an 83% chance to live.

#3
there are only 3 sets of possibilities as both bullets will kill you.
XOOOXO
XOOXOO
XOXOOO

There are 6 total open slots next to open slots of the 12 open slots. You are 50/50 to live.

Spin and you're 67% to live. So, question #1= SPIN

#2 is simple. Pull. The bullets aren't adjacent.