Bayes Thereom - Page 2

Marm · #11 (**permalink**) 01-15-2005, 10:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Av8tor009

anyways, if he's dead, just dont do it, he'll never know

But do you search his wallet first?

Av8tor009 · #12 (**permalink**) 01-15-2005, 10:51 PM

first... later.... he's not going anywhere lol

Av8tor009 · #13 (**permalink**) 01-15-2005, 10:57 PM

ok, we're back to #2
he's screwed..... ur turn....
assuming u cant raid his body and run, the choice is obvious, spin
not spinning, ur odds of living are a dismal 1 in 2...
spinning, your odds are 5 in 6 ( 1 bullet in 6 chambers)

doing a little math...
1/2 = 50%
5/6 = 83.3%

giving yourself an extra 33% chance of living is kinda good

bonchkid · #14 (**permalink**) 01-15-2005, 11:01 PM

I think I have this one solved, but marm won't answer!

Av8tor009 · #15 (**permalink**) 01-15-2005, 11:05 PM

now, i will aim my sight to #1.... a miss
unspun, your chances of living still suck- 3 in 5
spun, they still suck, slightly better- 2 in 3

MATH TIME
unspun 3/5 = 60%
spun 2/3 = 67%

it's only a 7% difference, but it IS YOUR LIFE... so once again, an extra 7% chance of living is kinda good

Av8tor009 · #16 (**permalink**) 01-15-2005, 11:10 PM

now we move to #3.... NO ADJACENT CHAMBERS

#1 a miss....
unspun, chances of living are 3 in 5
spun, chances of living are 2 in 3
3/5= 60%
2/3= 67%
SPUN STILL BETTER

#2 death
unspun, YOU CANNOT DIE
spun, chances of living are 5 in 6
no math required

bonchkid · #17 (**permalink**) 01-15-2005, 11:10 PM

How do you get those numbers, and why are they different from mine?

Av8tor009 · #18 (**permalink**) 01-15-2005, 11:12 PM

CONCLUSION

if ur friend fires and lives, it makes no difference where the bullets are, you must spin to give yourself the best odds of living.

if your friend dies, you must spin if the bullets are adjacent, however you CANNOT spin if they are not since you are guaranteed to live as is.

i am right, my answers are right, and above are my mathematical proofs confirming that i am right...

Av8tor009 · #19 (**permalink**) 01-15-2005, 11:16 PM

ok, here we go

#1

miss, there are 5 chambers left with 2 active bullets, chance of life 3/5
if you spin there are 6 chambers with 2 active bullets, chance 4/6 = 2/3

#2
hit, there is one chamber with either a bullet or not since adjacent, 1/2
spin, there are 6 chambers with 1 active bullet, 5/6

#3
with miss theres no difference for placement
with a hit, since the bullets arent adjacent the next chamber MUST BE EMPTY, making a spin suicide

Av8tor009 · #20 (**permalink**) 01-15-2005, 11:21 PM

what did you get for numbers?