The first thing you need to do is require everyone who posts on your thread to legally state "I do NOT work for any online poker site nor do I recieve renumeration from them in any way." Amazing how this makes a difference, I used to post on another site (which like this accepted advertising from online poker sites) where I was attacked by several members everytime the issue of dubious odds came up. After having that statement posted on my threads all of a sudden THREE of them stopped posting on my threads. Bit of a coincidence? I think not! Shortly after this I discovered an article about how poker sites "supposedly" hired people to troll through postings for negative comments on online poker and to flame them. It couldn't substantiate the claims but taken with what happened to me I would not be surprised if this was true.
Next thing to do is do what I did. Take a large (100k plus) section of hand histories to the maths department of your local university. Get them to analyse them. When they stop laughing at the results have a look at the analysis. In my case their comment was "If you play with people who have 6 aces in their deck you deserve to lose!".
Poker sites are a business. As such they are there to make money. Therefore it is in their interest to maximise the amount of money they make. How can they do this? Very easy. They analyse the play of every player on their site, how? By using the software that you have installed on your computer to play their site. Anyone remember a few years ago how updates from computer sites kept triggering your anti-virus protection? Now you know why. OK you say, they know how I play big deal. Well it IS a big deal...to THEM that is. Knowing how you play enables them to decide what type of player you are. They are looking for players who are loose, play a lot of hands and gamble on draws, Ace/rag, etc. These are the players who will be in and out of games faster than any other type of player, therefore more rake, therefore more profit. The good players they don't like, you aim to play deep in tournaments which means less games, less rake, less profit.
The big mistake is thinking the sites reward particular players, they don't. They reward a particular TYPE of player.
I know there will be lots of bleating posts from bad players who do well and call everyone else bad players, but I am more than happy to explain where they are wrong as they post their arguments.
And for the record my results are allins hand vs hand where i am 70% or better ahead AFTER the cards are turned over is 10% win. And that is over 3 YEARS of playing so it is not JUST a bad run.
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02-02-2011 #1Fish Food
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You've got the wrong approach (Closed TLDR)
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02-02-2011 #2
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02-03-2011 #3Fish Food
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Elaborate how? I am talking about once you have called and the cards are turned over post flop so you know what you have and what the opponent has. At this stage I calculate the odds. Is that what you were unclear on?
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02-03-2011 #4
Without raw data, and the subsequent analysis, Every one of these threads is bunk.
Scientific method:Without allowing #8 to happen, your data might as well be a Taco Bell receipt FAIK.
- Define the question
- Gather information and resources (observe)
- Form hypothesis
- Perform experiment and collect data
- Analyze data
- Interpret data and draw conclusions that serve as a starting point for new hypothesis
- Publish results
- Retest (frequently done by other scientists)
And most people refuse to do even #7. Claiming certain statistics is not publishing. Present your analysis in an xcel (or similar file), post it up on google docs or some other site, and let us look at the nuimbers. Post up your original Data (all 100k Hand histories) for us to examine.
Now I may agree to your claim that the sites may have people working on forums, trying to debunk the conspiracy theorists. It makes sense too. Most major companies or Industries do this. Take big tobacco for example. It's called Spin, Google Page Ranking, whatever.
It is known that there have been issues in the past. UB supposedly used Bots, AP had a player with a God View. Those I'm willing to believe since there has been enough corroborating evidence to support those claims.
6 aces? What makes me disbelieve your statements is that. If it took a team of math professors to notice that there was 6 aces in a hand, then that just tells me you really weren't playing in the hand, cause a blind man would notice that.Marm is back, maybe. Been off for 3 years. Rusty as Hell.
Luck is a Residue of Design.
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02-03-2011 #5
I'm going to go on to say that 100k hands is not big enough, I'm thinking closer to 1million. Heck, I know a lot of big winning players who are still grossly off AIEV but still play and don't get upset.
Also realize, people are likely to jump on you if you make conspiracy posts slamming their favorite site. Without solid proof that people are getting screwed your post just ends up creating unnecessary chaos and it looks very negative. If too many members are running around with tinfoil hats all the time, people don't take the forum seriously, and members who actually come to learn about poker become uninterested and leave.Last edited by KnightofNarg; 02-03-2011 at 10:50 AM.
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02-03-2011 #6Fish Food
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This in itself makes your whole post irrelevant, if you can't even read what is written properly how can we take anything you post seriously. IF you HAD read it you would have seen it stated "in the DECK".
Also please use the legal statement I have indicated in my post when you post so we can be assured that you are an unbiased observer.
Thanks
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02-03-2011 #7
This post does not add any relevant data to your cause
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02-03-2011 #8Fish Food
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100K hands for a single player is indeed enough to indicate if the odds are significantly off standard deviation. The big mistake everyone makes is not doing hand histories JUST FOR YOUR TABLE. If you dont do if just for your table then your results are meaningless. I still play and I do ok BECAUSE I have altered my odds table to reflect what the online sites do and NO I won't share this because it is my edge but it is not hard for anyone to work out for themselves.
Please use the legal statement I have indicated in my post when you post so we can be assured that you are an unbiased observer.
Thanks
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02-03-2011 #9
I don't see you using it anywhere
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02-03-2011 #10Fish Food
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- New Zealand
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