Hello everybody,
Here is the fact :
I play on Winamax, a French poker site, and I see very often these cases :
I'm not an expert in probabilities, but like this pictures show it, these couple of pre-flop pairs,which logically seem me extremely rare , happen too often to be not suspicious about the authenticity of deals.
The oldest picture is from the 16th october, and the latest is from today : 30th october. My play frequency is reasonable (average : alf an hour per day ).
What do you think ?
Sorry if I've written with faults.
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Thread: Suspicious about a poker site.
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10-29-2010 #1Fish Food
- Join Date
- Oct 2010
- Posts
- 2
Suspicious about a poker site.
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10-29-2010 #2
This may not be 100% correct, but should be close. Odds of getting a poket pair is 6% as I recall, or 1 in 17 hands. The chance of 2 (or more) people at a full ring (9 players) is around 3.3% or 1 in 30 hands. So, not all that uncommon. Been a while, but there are many odds calculators out there.
"People are always blaming their circumstances for what they are. I don't believe in circumstances. The people who get on in this world are the people who get up and look for the circumstances they want, and if they can't find them, they make them." - George Bernard Shaw
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10-29-2010 #3
Actually, If you have been dealt a PP, the chances of anybody else having a HIGHER PP is (7n - (xn/2))%. Where X is the value of your cards and N is the number of players left to act.
ex you have a pair of 8's, with 4 people left to act, theres a 12% chance that somebody has a pair higher than that.
pair of 2's with 9 people to act, thats a 54% chance that somebody else has a higher PP.
If you dont believe this, I posted the proof for this here and on 2+2 a few years ago, where it was vaildated on both sites. It is an approximation, doable at the table (usefulness comes intop question though). You can run the exact math yourself if you want, this formula is about .5%-1% off.
Point is, seeing 2 pairs at a table is not uncommon at all. In fact, you would see a lot more of it at the better tables if players werent so smart. It's the tables with stupid players that can't let go of a pair that you see this often. Gotta remember, most of the time, if your holding less than 8's, and you don't hit your set on the flop, most likely you should fold.Marm is back, maybe. Been off for 3 years. Rusty as Hell.
Luck is a Residue of Design.
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10-29-2010 #4
Without breaking out the calc, or looking it up, that looks about right Marm, close enough anyway. KK with 1 person to act, 0.5% (1 in 200) they have AA. 22 with 9 left, more that half the time your beat going in. See a cheap flop hoping for a set, but even then there's a chance someone flopped a higher set.
Edit: If it seems like it at first glance; if you really look at it, my numbers above dont disagree with Marms; they are just taking a different approach to the same question.Last edited by Pinguaq; 10-29-2010 at 10:00 PM.
"People are always blaming their circumstances for what they are. I don't believe in circumstances. The people who get on in this world are the people who get up and look for the circumstances they want, and if they can't find them, they make them." - George Bernard Shaw
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10-30-2010 #5Fish Food
- Join Date
- Oct 2010
- Posts
- 2
Ok, thank you for your answers. It's difficult to believe that, but now i can trust the poker site.
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10-30-2010 #6
Didnt say you could trust it, just that it's within normal variance :P
Marm is back, maybe. Been off for 3 years. Rusty as Hell.
Luck is a Residue of Design.
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11-08-2010 #7Fish
- Join Date
- Sep 2010
- Posts
- 80
Are they licensed by a reputable licensing board?
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11-10-2010 #8Chaser
- Join Date
- Nov 2010
- Posts
- 104
Variance that's all that is. It's not really rigged.
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