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Old 03-13-2006, 12:34 PM
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G_The_Jester G_The_Jester is offline
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I was thinking more from a statistical point of view.

How profitable can a bet out on a raise call be regardless of the read on the player.

On a 10 man table for instance there should be an ace dealt in someones pocket cards and a further 50% chance that there will be two aces dealt.

Based on the call to a hefty raise then it would be fair to assume that an A on the flop would hit an A in the callers hand would it not?

Taking this further there is a 20% chance that the player could be calling with a pocket pair or an A and the now innocent looking cards on the flop could offer a set.

To this would you assume that in reality there could be a 20% chance you are beaten?

Therefore for every 5 bets you make post flop you may be ahead 4 times with the best hand and behind once, sounds like a good bet.

However what about the times that the preflop raise wins before the flop (i.e. folds A# and small pairs would it not now be right to assume that you are up against a premium hand when you do get a caller?
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