after reading most of what was posted on that forum: the whole debate seems to be about the proportion of one fabricated number (your expectation on hand one) and another fabricated number (your expectation on hand two, after doubling up on hand one).

i see very little point in attempting to quantify your expectation in MTTs on a hand by hand basis, much less trying to work the rate of expectation gained per chip...

this Wotmog thing makes sense, but only within the context of the original nonsense. If you had a 100 man $10 tourney and ask everyone to predict their expectation at the begining i'm pretty sure the number would add up to more than $1000, after all, why would 100 ppl enter if 90% of them expected to make back less than they put in? whos values for expectation do you use then, assuming player 1 is as good at making up numbers as player 2.

the whole thing seems like a pseudointelecutal way of asking 'does doubling up on the first hand double your chances of winning?'. The problem with that question being that ignores every other factor in the game except your stack size (and maybe an arbitery skill multipler) and then tries to come to an answer with an imposible degree of exactness (i.e. the 100% increase). Its imposible to know what your per chip equity was on hand two until the games over, and you'll never be able to prove that doubling up on hand one caused you to win twice as much as you would have won otherwise.

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I love him who is ashamed when the dice fall in his favour and who then asks: Am I then a cheat? for he wants to perish.