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Old 08-30-2005, 09:49 AM
Fireball Fireball is offline
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Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 59
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Default How much do you bet?

MTT : 300 fpp satellites 9 players make the money, 25 left. Average stack 6000, I have 5200. Blinds 100-200.

UTG: Call (weak play, he plays a lot of hand with any suited, AXs, and good hands (of course))

Folded to me on the button :KJo, I call
Blinds also call

Pot = 800

Flop : KQ5 (2 spades, k5)

BLinds check, UTG bet 400.

First thought : he is on the flush drwa and want to draw cheaply, may have any 2 cards under the Q, or AQs. Also, he can have the K with a lower kicker. I was 80% confident with that so I bet 1200 (the pot) which is 800 more. Blinds fold and he calls.

Now I think he is trying the draw. AQ would have reraised (the way he plays) and he would have folded crappy hand.

Pot = 3200.

Turn 5: Perfect

He bets 400 (try to buy a river cheaply). 95% confident, unless he slowplays KK or QQ.

How much do you raise here?

Pot is now 3600, I have 3800. If he is on a draw, he won't call my all-in, but if he slow-palys withh KK or QQ he will, so all-in is not good here. I want more money from the draw. He has 9 cards that helps him out of 46 = 1/5.1

So if I bet 1150 more, he is even money (without implied odds). So any bet over 1550 is a good bet for me.

What is your bet and why?
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