Hey guys, so I've been tinkering with this idea as of late. Tell me what you guys think.

The basic premise of the idea is to 5bet shove these 3 sc's: 56s, 67s, 78s over someone whom we have pegged as a lite 4-bettor.

Now heres some mathematical analysis:

Why these 3 hands u should ask? Well, its very plain and simple. These 3 hands fair the best vs. AA/KK mathematically when played for stacks all in pf.

Hand 0: 77.589% 77.40% 00.19% 190854636 458316.00 { KK+ }
Hand 1: 22.411% 22.22% 00.19% 54800508 458316.00 { 87s, 76s, 65s }

Why 3 sc's? Why not 2, or 1?

The answer to this is to balance our range of ultra lite 5bet shoving vs 5bet shoving with nut hands. There are 6 combos of AA, and 6 for KK, for a total of 12 combos of essentially the nuts in a LP vs Blind, LP vs LP, or blind vs blind battle which you would be 5 bet shoving also. Since each sc has 4 combos, raising 3 of them (for a total of 12 combos) would have you 5bet bluff shoving with a very balanced range since half the time you would have a sc and the other half the time a big PP. This is of course assuming you 3bet these sc's in the first place, which for most players is the norm nowadays.


A mathematical scenario:

Now assuming our opponents calling range of our 5bet bluff shove is QQ+, AKo, AKs. Here is how our 5 bet shove bluff range fairs against it:

Hand 0: 68.999% 68.80% 00.20% 480617304 1425032.00 { QQ+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 31.001% 30.80% 00.20% 215152664 1425032.00 { 87s, 76s, 65s }

Now lets say we have our opponent pegged as a light 4 bettor, and is 4 betting all his AX, as well as JJ+ type hands with the intention of folding to a shove with anything JJ or under or AQ and under. Assuming he is a taggish-aggro type player who raises A8o+, from the co/button this would mean he would be 4betting us with a range of 10.9% of hands. Assuming he calls our shove with only QQ+, AKo/AKs (a range of 2.6%) and folds everything else, this would mean he would be folding roughly about 3 out of every 4 times he 4bets us.

Now lets measure this in a table situation:

Assuming a 5/10 nl game with standard 100 bb stacks. We are in the BB with 67s, our opponent raises the button to 35$, we repop to 125$ and he 4bets us to $325. Assuming we have him pegged as a lite 4bettor and is 4betting the range we specified above. He would be folding to our shove 3/4 of the time which results in us getting +455$ each time he folds. Now the 1 time he calls us, we will still have 31% equity vs his calling range, so will only lose $690 over the long run when we get our 100bb stacks in (assuming he doesnt adjust his calling range to us - once he sees us doing this he may adjust and start calling our shoves with AQ/JJ, etc - but this will also benefit us in the fact that our big pocket pairs will now get paid off more often). So this results in a total equity of roughly +$168.75 (factor in the fact that half the time we will be in the sb instead and it will come out to approx. 17bbs) every time we do this.



Thoughts?