Whilst his PFR is 21% it's the ATSB% stat that is more relevant here, 28%.

PokerStove shows that as 55+/A2s+/A7o+/K5s+/K9o+/Q7s+/Q9o+/J8s+/J9o+/T8s+

So it's a wide range and we are a favourite against that range

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

558,211,104 games 0.063 secs 8,860,493,714 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 48.349% 46.24% 02.11% 258120265 11770768.00 { 55+, A2s+, K5s+, Q7s+, J8s+, T8s+, 98s, A7o+, K9o+, Q9o+, J9o+ }
Hand 1: 51.651% 49.54% 02.11% 276549303 11770768.00 { KcJc }

My thinking for what he'd call the 3bet with is 99+/AJs+/AQo+/KQ/JTs (just chucked this in because occasionally he'll call with a speculative hand to try and outplay me in position

Against this range we are:
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

130,135,104 games 0.005 secs 26,027,020,800 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 35.007% 34.24% 00.76% 44561483 994715.00 { KcJc }
Hand 1: 64.993% 64.23% 00.76% 83584191 994715.00 { 99+, AJs+, KQs, JTs, AQo+, KQo }

Obviously just the PokerStove numbers aren't enough because we have to face post flop decisions.

If he is opening 28% of hands and calling a 3bet with 6.9% of hands that means that he folds approx 75% of the time. So assuming BB always folds we make $11 75% of the time. Assuming we 3bet to $28 we show an immediate profit of:

(0.75 * $11) - (0.25 * $27) = $1.50

and this assumes we always lose when called (obv not going to be the case)

I am really tired so if my maths is wrong or my logic then please say.

When we weigh in that Button's range for calling the 3bet could well be wider and BB will sometimes have a monster 3betting becomes even more marginal EV and the fact we are left OOP when called means I quite like just calling the 3bet.

If we are going to 3 betting a lot then I see David's point of merging our range but I personally prefer my range to be complete air and monsters.


misterx I think you're reading too much in to his stack size. It is only effective size that really matters which is $200 since that is all he can force me to have to call. You could argue he may be more liberal with his stack because he's clearly up for the session and running hot may make him try more moves but I don't know how material this is.

On the flop I don't like check/folding to a sizeable bet because we have a ton of equity against his range:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

299,970 games 0.047 secs 6,382,340 games/sec

Board: 8c 5c 7h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 59.546% 57.79% 01.76% 173353 5268.50 { KcJc }
Hand 1: 40.454% 38.70% 01.76% 116080 5268.50 { 55+, A2s+, K5s+, Q7s+, J8s+, T8s+, 98s, A7o+, K9o+, Q9o+, J9o+ }


If we consider what I would perceive to be his range for stacking off our equity is:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

45,540 games 0.005 secs 9,108,000 games/sec

Board: 8c 5c 7h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 41.954% 41.22% 00.73% 18773 333.00 { KcJc }
Hand 1: 58.046% 57.31% 00.73% 26101 333.00 { 55+, AcQc }


So still not too bad. If we check raise to $40 and he shoves we are left having to call $152 in to a pot of $248 and will need 38% equity. So it is slightly +EV to check/raise/call.

I wonder if bet/3bet shove gives us more value though from the fold equity we gain. Maybe someone else would like to do a calc for this?

That's enough ramblings for now, hopefully someone will have comments about this post and have more to add on top.

Keep up the discussion guys!