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Old 02-24-2008, 08:41 PM
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Stu Ungar
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 2,124
Trade Rating: (1)
Default NL25 TPGK vs TAG

Read/notes etc...

-Villain is 20/18/4 over about 100 hands, very solid guy who 3bets me light (3bet me CO raise OTB with JTo and got called a by a shorty).
-I've had a hot run of cards so my stats are 33/28/4, he views me as super agro but knows I have a fold button
-I have just 4bet pot a few hands ago over his 3bet and he folds, so he knows I can play back
-He is definitely capable of making moves

$0.15/$0.25 No Limit Holdem
5 players
Converted at weaktight | fold when you know you're beat (BETA)

Stacks:
UTG ($7.65)
CO ($4.30)
Hero ($25.10)
SB ($28.75)
BB ($22.05)

Pre-flop: ($0.4, 5 players) Hero is BTN
UTG calls $0.25, 1 fold, Hero bets $1.25, SB calls $1.10, 1 fold, UTG folds

Flop: ($3, 2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $2.25, SB bets $7, Hero calls $4.75.

Turn: ($17, 2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks

River: ($17, 2 players)
SB goes all-in $20.50, Hero folds

Final Pot: $37.50
Hero shows: Q:club: K:club:

SB wins $36.65 ( won $7.9 )
UTG lost -$0.25
Hero lost -$8.25

My analysis...

-He is capable of 3betting pre but hasn't, so I think TT+ is way less likely.
-Range leans more towards 55/Qx and flush draws, plus some random air like 77-99

I didn't really have a plan what to do after I've called or what I'm repping, but folding seemed too weak on a drawy board.

Once turn basically bricks, he has monsters, draws and bluffs. He views me as pretty agro, but if I actually had a hand like Axdd/sets/top two I'd be shoving flop for protection+value, so I shouldn't ever really have a monster here.

Turn confuses me the most. He views me as agro so expects me to fire twice a lot, but I'm repping a weak hand that should check behind. I obviously can't fold better and nothing worse calls + don't want to be randomly shoving so I checked behind.

He shoves river and I'm like and time down. My flop and turn line now looks weak as so he can turn all his draws into bluffs, but I still beat none of his made hands, and obviously need a pretty good reason to stack off with a pair.

Halp ?
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