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Old 04-04-2007, 12:20 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Meldon View Post
Firstly, I would play this hand almost exactly the same as you (maybe a 4x raise preflop), but I'm not sure it is +EV.

I think we can put villain on a fairly narrow range of hands based on his actions. I put the following range into PokerStove :

QQ-JJ,88,AQs,KQs,QJs,T9s,AQo,KQo,QJo,T9o

I think to call an UTG raise and then min-raise that flop he must have one of the above hands. I appreciate there maybe a couple of others (KJ, TT, 99), but I think they're less likely.

This makes us ~45-55 underdog on that board. The way the post-flop action went down we would need some fold equity with the push to make it profitable and I really don't think we have that much. He's getting about 3-1 to call your push and with the range I mentioned above he's likely calling. If we factor in the possibility of him bluffing and him having the ability to fold KQ, AQ then it may be better, but it's close. We have no read on villain afterall.

I disagree with Seany and believe the play would have been better if villain had a deeper stack - we would have had more fold equity from marginal hands that we're behind to such KQ, AQ etc.
But we have money in the pot already, plus we must add the possibility that he is just flat out bluffing, or is a donk and our aces and kings count for outs or is on a flush draw also.

If we just call this flop, and we miss turn and villain pushes we will be getting about 3 to 1 from the pot and about 3 to 1 to draw to the straight and flush. Might as well get it in now.
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Last edited by WeakTight; 04-04-2007 at 12:22 PM.
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