10 outs and that's when it isn't set v. set which it usually isn't.

It isn't obvious that Eclipse doesn't have a flush. I'd say that it looks like Eclipse limp/called PF with Axs or a middle pair, caught a diamond draw and CR'd the flop to take it down or a set to get it all in or take it down. You're only getting ~1.8:1 on the call. You have to be (a) best AND dodge a diamond or (b) be against a flush and not a bigger set AND catch your full house a total of 55% of the time just to break even. Villian's about 16% to catch a diamond that beats us if we're not beat and we're about 20% to catch a boat when he has a flush and not a bigger set. So, making a "great read" in the moment isn't all that profitable.

I said I'd make the call 30% of the time because I have a database on 1/2 of the 5 people I'm playing with and that also includes the 10-15% of the time when I'm just playing bad poker.

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