Quote:
Originally Posted by nima
For your play to be profitable you need to be DEAD sure that he will fold at least 30% of the time.
That is because 30%(fluh draw) * (70% - When he doesnt fold) + 30% (that he folds) > 50%.
That way you win over 50% of the time. You can add more factors if you think your Ace or King outs are still good. (if they hit you win)
However in this situation I don't think he would fold 30% of the time.
But again, depends on how tight he is and what information you have about him.
Cheers,
Nima
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That also assumes that Villian always has us beat when we're called. It's a draw heavy board and Villian's on a small range because of the PF action, but that same PF action could force him to fold as high as JJ.
A PF range of AA-77, AK-AT+A9s, KQ to this flop and consider that McJ's lead and Villian's position and all of these hands can make this raise to $40. 40% of these hands we already have beat. Let's say that Villian is 50/50 to be capable of this move. That's 20% right there. 77-88 is 10% of the range which we're assuming he folding. Add in that TT/JJ/A9 could fold and we're over the 30% mark.
If the guy's a total donk, his bluffing/folding range is larger with those hands as are the hands he saw the flop with and we can get pushed on and have the best hand.
Against a rock with a range of AA-TT that would call PF AND make this raise, if he has that PF range, he's definitely laying down JJ and maybe QQ here and would've laid down AQ PF and if he played AK, he'd fold to the $15.