I am trying to understand if morton’s theorem is true and is a legitimate loop-hole in FToP.

The best example I have seen is

Player A holds Ad Kc
Player B holds Ah Th
Player C holds Qc 9c.

Flop is Ks 9h 3h 4d –actually it says that the turn is a “blank”

It is postulated that when the pot is between 6.25 and 8.5bets player A profits when player C CORRECTLY folds.

But according to twodimes.net

Pot if player C folds is equity
Player A 78.6%
Player B 20.5%

Pot if player C calls is equity
Player A 69%
Player B 21.4%
Player C 9.5%


If the pot including a turn bet by Player A and a call by Player B to player C is 6.25BB

If player C folds, player As stake of the pot is 4.91 BBs if player C calls player As share of the new pot 7.25BB pot is 5.00. It is pretty much a wash, the profit is minimal.

Now, what happens on the river? Can we assume that if a heart hits, playerA will play the same on the river? Or would PlayerA be more likely to fold to a bet by PlayerB is C also called? Lets say they are the same. And ignore it.

We can assume that player A will lose between 1 and 2 extra bets the 9.5% of the time that a Q or 9 hits on the river.

Averaging that out, that would be about -.15BB

70% of the time, no flush or Q or 9 will hit if Player C calls a river bet as little as 22% of the time, the results will break-even. Any additional calls will result in additional profit. I don’t think that the we can assume that player C will call often that that. Sense he has already been calling against the odds and must feel there is some chance his hand is best.

So, this is a worst case scenario for Morton's, since this is where PlayerCs call would be biggest mistake pot-odds wise, and it seems that it only erodes player As profit if player C is sure he is behind and will not call on the river without improving.

Then there is the question of whether or not his call is correct in the first place. But this is enough for now.

There is also the question of whether or not the FToP is a proper or useful way to judge poker play - maybe later.