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Originally Posted by the alex
The straight just hit, but the clubs missed. Personally, I check-raise the flop. I'd let the Button bet at it and pick up a read there. No way he's laying down a club and if he checks behind, you can check any river. Aggressive players can't let people get away with 2 checks. No club, he bets, you call, you win the pot.
I don't think the pot size is all that important. The tone that you set on the flop was a $40 bet. He's not betting more than $60 on the turn or river. If so, you'll know he has shit. Yeah, he's a big bettor, but come on- let's be real for a minute that this is a monstrous pot.
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OK... here's how the hand worked out:
On the flop, the issue for me wasn't the button, but the preflop raiser from the CO. I bet $40 (1/2 the pot) to see what he'd do. If he re-raised, I'd strongly suspect that I was up against AK or a set, and depending on the amount of the raise, I might dump the hand.
The CO folded, but now the Button just called. Given his aggressive nature, I was sure I was ahead of him at this point. However, I only considered that he was on a flush draw, and I made up my mind that I was pushing with any non-club on the turn. The Js fit that description. He called with AhJc, made two-pair with his 3-outer, and stacked me.
I can live with being unlucky, but if played the hand poorly because I should have taken into consideration that AJ was in the range of hands he could be playing, then I need to hear that.
What makes this hand difficult is the combination of the size of the pot, the size of my remaining stack, and the Button's profile. If I had considered him being on AJ as a possibility, what bet could I have made that would prevent me from getting stacked? Let's say I bet only $50 into the $160 pot as sort of probe bet. This player would have read that bet as weakness, raised me, and likely put me all in. He had played several hands exactly like that; the other player always folded, and so I never got to see the strength of the hand that he was actually playing.
In any event, if he raised a probe bet by me, there would be over $300 in the pot at that point, and I would have only $105 left in my stack. I don't think that I could have laid down the hand with those pot odds.
If that analysis is correct, then my push is probably correct, too, even though it worked out poorly. Does anyone disagree?