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Steve-O · #11 (**permalink**) 09-15-2006, 01:55 PM

Some related stuff

Heads up hands Vs. Multi-way hands

you will often hear people say such and such a hand plays well against many opponents while such and such a hand does better against fewer opponents. While these statements are true most people reciting them do not understand the true reasons why.

Let’s look at something I call Big Hand Potential, this is the chance that you will flop an almost unbeatable hand or a nut draw. In Texas hold Em I consider a big hand on the flop 2 pair or better or a Flush or Straight draw.

First we will look at the Big Hand Potential of 9Ts, you will flop 2 pair or a better made hand approximately 6% of the time, you will flop a 4 card flush approximately 11% of the time, and you will flop a 4 card open ended straight draw approximately 12% of the time. When we take away overlapping flops such as when you have a straight and a flush draw you will have a big flop 25% or 1 out 4 times you have this hand.

Now we will take a look at the big hand potential of AQ. You will flop 2 pair or a better made hand about 6% of the time as well but will almost never flop a flush draw to your Ace and will never have better than an inside straight draw. So the Big Hand Potential of AQ is only 6% meaning every 1 out of 17 or so times you will flop a big hand.

From the 2 examples above it would seem that 9Ts is an astoundingly better hand than AQ but we did not take into account the times you flop a single pair which is about 27% for both hands. When AQ flops a pair it is almost always top pair with top or second best kicker making it a very good hand, this is not the case with 9Ts rarely will you have top pair on the board and if you do you may already be out-kicked.

The problem with flopping a single pair is it leaves you susceptible to being out-drawn if you are not already beaten, the more opponents in the hand the more likely it is you will be out-drawn. When you flop a big hand you are less likely to be out-drawn and therefor do not mind multiple opponents in the pot.

9Ts is a multi-way hand, AQ is a heads up hand. 9Ts will most of its money when it flops a big hand against multiple opponents, while AQ will win most of its money by flopping top pair against few opponents.

This is an area where many players make mistakes, they see AQ and are confronted with 5 limpers and say “I have the best hand I should raise” and by the same token they see 9Ts and have 5 limpers in front of them and say, “a limp is good because I have a drawing hand.”

When they have AQ and there are 5 limpers they should say, “I have a 27% chance to flop a pair let me call and see the flop, this way I keep the pot smaller making it easier to eliminate players if I make my hand” this will also get someone with QT or A8 to bet at this pot where a pre-flop raise will keep them from betting into me.

If more than 2 people have limped into the pot I rarely raise with AQ.

This is especially important when you are playing showdown poker. Showdown poker is when most hands go to showdown, i.e. a loose game. When you are playing showdown poker all of the fancy plays and ways to outplay your opposition go out the window and straightforward poker should take over. When this happens you must be even more cognizant of the odds.

AQ goes from likely being the best hand pre-flop to needing to improve to win which we know will happen less than 1 in 3 times, even more important is to know its big hand potential which is a paltry 6%. Flopping top pair is good but in showdown poker top pair is far from a guaranteed winner, unlike a flush or a set.