Most of my analysis doesn't count for overlaps which will drop your final %s a few points but here you go
AA.- This hand has no cons, it is the best hand heads up and it also the best hand against 9 opponents. Anytime you are dealt this hand you should be betting and raising for value. AA can never be dominated pre-flop and will leave your opponent(s) with very few outs.
Winning percentage vs a random hand 85%
Winning percentage vs a random top 40 hand 83%
Winning percentage vs 3 random top 40 hands 56%
Big hand potential on the flop 11%, to flop a set. However you will rarely get much action when you flop a set of Aces unless someone else has the other Ace.
The interesting number is the winning percentage vs. 3 top 40 type hands, 56%. Think about that, in a normal game where you have 3 callers you will only win with the best possible starting hand about half the time. Do not get frustrated when you lose with AA, it will happen quite a bit, just remember this hand is the best long term winner.
KK - Even though it is the second best hand in Hold Em, KK is not AA. KK can be dominated pre-flop, AA cannot, and anyone holding A2-AK has 3 outs to hit their Ace to beat you.
When you are dealt KK in a 10 handed game it is about 20 to1 that someone holds AA.
The flop will contain an Ace 22%, with you flopping a set 11% of those times.
Winning percentage vs a random hand 82%
Winning percentage vs a random top 40 hand 78%
Winning percentage vs 3 random top 40 hands 50%
Big hand potential on flop, 11% to flop a set.
As you can see KK will win only slightly less than AA, but unlike AA there can be an over-card on the flop that may force you to fold the best hand. You dont know if the person has an Ace or not and most of the time you will have to fold when an Ace appears and you dont improve.
QQ - Queens are the third best hand in Hold Em and should also be played very aggressively pre-flop, with the exception of when a very tight or strong player re-raises you. This is typically a sign of Aces, Kings, Queens, or possibly AK, 4 hands where you are either in a lot of trouble or about 50/50 to win the pot.
When you are dealt QQ in a 10 handed game it is approximately 10 to 1 that another player holds AA or KK.
There will be either an Ace or a King on the flop 31% of the time, with you flopping a set 11% of those times
Winning percentage vs a random hand 80%
Winning percentage vs a random top 40 hand 72%
Winning percentage vs 3 random top 40 hands 44%
Big hand potential on flop, 11% to flop a set.
As you move down from KK to QQ you start to see more and more vulnerability. 1 out 5 times you will not improve and there will be at least 1 over-card, almost double the chances of an Ace hitting the flop when you have KK.
This vulnerability does not mean you shouldnt play QQ aggressively, it means that you will be put to harder and harder decisions after the flop as your hands get weaker.
Situational Hands
JJ - Jacks are right on the cusp of greatness, Think the Buffalo Bills that lost 4 straight Super Bowls and you have JJ in Hold Em. Despite the fact you already have a strong made hand Jacks are very vulnerable to be out-drawn. In a game where a raise will not trim the field you will usually need to either have an over-pair to the board cards or hit a set to win.
If there has not been a raise by a decent player you should raise with Jacks. If a decent or better player has already raised in early position (representing one of the top 10 hands) you are better off just calling and allowing some looser players into the pot that would fold if you made it 3 bets. The only top 10 hands Jacks dominate are TT and 99 and the top 10 are the hands a decent player would raise with from Early Position. In this case you will need to improve to win so you are better off allowing more players into the pot in hopes you hit your set.
You will have 3 of a kind or have an over-pair on the flop about 53% of the time. That means you will not improve with there being an Ace, King, or Queen on the flop 47% of the time.
Winning percentage vs a random hand 77%
Winning percentage vs a random top 40 hand 66%
Winning percentage vs 3 random top 40 hands 38%
Big hand potential on flop, 11% to flop a set.
I call Jacks a 50/50 hand, half the time you will like the flop the other half you will not like it. Jacks are the cutoff point of the automatic raise. Jacks will need to be played well pre and post-flop to show a profit, use all the information available to you to make the correct decisions.
AKs and AK - AK is a hand that should always be raised if you play it. The suited aspect of this hand only adds approximately 4% to your winning percentage but that 4% of the time you have big hand potential where someone else with 3 of a kind or a smaller flush will pay you off nicely. The reasons to raise AK are;
You really want to limit the field with this hand, even though you have the flush potential when its suited the main reason to play this hand is the top pair top kicker potential. When you have AK the flop will contain an Ace or a King 27% of the time. You want people holding hands like 78 to fold so they will not hit 2 pair on a flop of A78 which will cost you many bets. if you do not raise you will have a hard time putting people on a hand.
You also want to gather information with this hand, if you raise and are called by 2 players you can be pretty sure no one has AA or KK, most players re-raise with these hands, therefor if you flop an Ace or a King you can be sure you have top pair and are not against a set of Aces or Kings. If a player re-raises, AA or KK now becomes a possibility and that extra small bet pre-flop may save you 2 or 3 big bets post-flop.
AK also dominates many hands looser or weaker players will call a raise with AQ, AJ, AT, KQ, etc. you want these hands to call your raise so when you share the Ace or the King on the board you have the better kicker and they will pay you off all the way with their top pair lesser kicker.
Winning percentage vs a random hand, AK off-suit 65%, AK suited 67%
Winning percentage vs a random top 40 hand, AK off-suit 59%, AK suited 61%
Winning percentage vs 3 random top 40 hands, AK off-suit 31%, AK suited 35%
Big hand potential on flop, AK off-suit - 3 of a kind/full house/straight 2%,
Big hand potential on flop, AK suited - 3 of a kind/full house/straight/flush 3% Flush Draw 11%
As you can see AK does not have a large big hand potential but does do well against a 1-3 opponents. This hand is played for hitting top pair and will therefor fair better against less opponents.
When a player raises in front of you it is very important that you know this persons raising standards, if they are loose you should re-raise, if they are extremely tight you may want to fold unless you are receiving good odds to flat call.
Big Aces, AQ, AJ - These hands are played to hit top pair with top kicker (TPTK) or an Ace with good kicker. When most of your best case scenarios are flopping top pair you would like fewer opponents in the pot since top pair is a vulnerable hand and you do not want a lot of people chasing hands or seeing the flop. Because of this you should normally raise these hands if it will eliminate opponents and also to show strength which will allow you to bluff or semi-bluff ragged flops.
there are 3 scenarios where a big Ace plays very well
When there are 1-3 loose limpers. When loose players limp into a pot a hand such as AQ or AJ will either have them dominated if they have a weaker Ace (since a loose player will typically raise AJ-AK you can be fairly certain you have the best Ace) or make top pair if you hit your other card (again it is very unlikely a loose player would limp with a pair of Jacks or higher). Basically if you hit your hand more times than not you will be ahead.
When you can isolate a loose raiser. When you know a player has very loose raising standards you can attempt to eliminate all of the other players by 3 betting with these hands allowing you to play heads up against what should be an inferior hand.
When you are opening the pot from middle or late position. In this situation you are looking to win the blinds uncontested but are not unhappy when someone calls since you have a very good chance to win a heads up situation with these hands.
Suited big Aces also play very well in multi-player pots. Unsuited big Aces do not play as well because they have less big hand potential, and with 5+ players in a pot TPTK is not a guaranteed winner. The big hand potential that goes with the suited Aces makes them very playable in these situations and you should often raise them in these situations as well where unsuited you should be calling.
Big Aces do not play well when a decent player has raised from early position, youre hand is at the bottom end of the spectrum of hands he would be raising with. The only hand I would consider calling with in this situation is AQs.
If a tight player enters the pot from Early Position you also do not want to play a hand like AQ unless you are receiving proper odds. Again AQ rates to be at the bottom end of the hands a tight player would limp in with from Early Position.
You also do not want decent players to call or re-raise you when you raise with a Big Ace. Again your hand is at the bottom of the spectrum that these players will call a raise with and in these situations they also have position over you. You do not mind when loose or bad players call you but you should realize you need a good flop to win if a decent player calls your raise or re-raises you.
AQ and AJ will flop 2 pair or better about 4% of the time and will flop a pair about 27% of the time. With these hands you will be happy with the flop about 1 time in 3. When they are suited you will also flop a 4 flush 11% of the time. There is also a very small chance you will flop a straight.
AT - this hand is actually quite inferior to AQ or AJ. The only time I recommend playing AT is when you can open the pot from middle or late position. ATs can be played in the same situation or when multiple opponents have limped into the pot because of its greater big hand potential.
The reasons AT is inferior to AJ and AQ are,
It is dominated by more hands. AK, AQ, AJ, TT, JJ, QQ, KK, and AA compared to AQ which is dominated by only AK, QQ, KK, and AA.
It is more unlikely that a Ten will be top pair on the flop than a Jack or Queen.
It is much more vulnerable to over-cards on the turn and river.
Since it is best to raise with this hand it is much more unlikely people will call a raise with QT or KT as opposed to QJ, KJ, or KQ. This will eliminate a lot of profit from when you share a card with an opponent.
Bear in mind that even though AT has a 3 card gap to make a straight, AJ and AQ also require 3 specific cards to make an Ace high straight giving them the same straight potential. If you feel you need to flop 2 pair or better to beat your opponent AT is just as likely as AQ to make a big hand.
Small to Medium Pairs 22-TT - These are hands many players have trouble with. When you play a small or medium pair the only flop you really want to see is when you make 3 of a kind or better. The problem is this will only happen 11% of the time, about 1 time in 8. As you can see these hands look much better than they actually are.
A good example of this is; in a $5/$10 game if you were to play 77 against 1 opponent who will call your bets on the flop, turn, and river every time you make trips, you would win $30 once every 8 times you play this hand. However you will lose $5 the other 7 times you do not improve and have to fold, therefor you will lose $5 every 8 hands if you played under these conditions. Now if we add 3 more players to the mix, all of which will fold on the flop you would now win $45 the 1 time you make your hand and lose $35 the other 7 times, for a profit of $10. Extra opponents turned a losing hand into a winning hand. These examples do not take into account the times you make your hand and still lose, or the money that will go to the rake, so the amount you actually win will be lower.
Small and medium pairs typically need 4 or more opponents pre-flop to show a profit in the long run. Obviously the higher the pair the less opponents you will need since you can add in having an over-pair to your good flops.
The worst case scenario is to have 2 or 3 opponents in a raised pot, especially if they play well after the flop, i.e. they will fold when you make a hand and will take the pot away from you when you both miss. You can sometimes raise these hands or call raises if you have 5 opponents due to your implied odds.
Exception; If you can get the pot heads up. Small pairs also play very well against 1 opponent, especially the blinds, since you have a made hand and your opponents chances of hitting 1 of his 2 unmatched cards on the flop are about 3 to 1, and it could be a lower card than your pair. If you are in late position and first to enter the pot you should raise with any pair to either win the blinds or get the pot heads up with position on your opponent.
A2-A9 Suited - A lot of players have trouble with these hands as well, usually playing on when they make only a pair of aces. The flops you are really looking for with these hands are 2 pair or better, or a flush draw. You will make a made hand of 2 pair or better only 2% of the time (including flushes and straights), you will flop a flush draw 11% of the time and complete your flush 35% of the time. You will also win with a pair of aces occasionally but these are not good flops for these hands and need to be played very cautiously. A2-A5 are actually a little stronger than A6 and A7 because of their extra straight potential since your kicker will rarely come into play if another player holds an Ace.
For A2-A9 suited to be playable you need 4 or more opponents in the pot before the flop. The worst case scenario for these hands are to be in a raised pot against 1 or 2 opponents, the raise indicates that your opponent has a hand that dominates you such as AQ or TT where you have very few outs. Again you can call a raise or raise from late position with these hands if you expect 5 or more opponents, however if you have trouble folding top pair after the flop, especially if the pot is big, you should only play them in an unraised pot, you dont want to play a trap hand.
Exception; If you are opening the pot from late position AX is most likely a better hand than the random hands of the blinds and should be raised to either win the blinds or get the pot heads up.
Suited Connectors, 34-89 - when you play these hands you are looking for flops of 2 pair or better, an open ended straight draw, or a flush draw. You will only make a made hand of 2 pair or better about 5.5% of the time, when you add the straight and flush draws you will hit these are still not overly strong hands, despite their aesthetic beauty. Treat connectors with 1 gap such as 8T or 79 about the same, however each gap will drop your straight potential on the flop by 3%.
Flop percentages for suited connectors
Flush draw 11%, you will make a flush 35% of the time on the turn or river for a total of 4%.
Open ended straight draw 9% (6% for the nut straight draw), you will make a straight 31% of the time on the turn or river for a total of 3%.
2 pair 2%.
Big hand potential on flop, 3 of a kind/full house/straight/flush 3.5%.
You should only play 34 or 45, 5 if 5 or more players are already in the pot. You can play 56, 67, 78, and 89 if 4 or more players are in the pot. These hands are only playable from late position and possibly middle position if the situation is right. You can raise or call a raise with these hands if you expect 6 or more opponents in the pot but it is a good idea for a beginner to only play these hands in an unraised pot. If you have trouble getting trapped in hands when the pot is big you should only play these hands in unraised pots as well.
Exception; when you are in the big blind and a lone opponent raises. You can call in this situation, although you are not getting the right number of opponents you are getting the right pot odds, around 3.5 to 1 because you are partially in the pot, and you are against only 1 opponent therefor your chance of winning the pot has increased, especially if your opponent is a loose raiser or will call you down when you make a strong hand and he has very little.
Unsuited and Suited Connectors 9T-QK - these hands are much stronger than their smaller cousins. In an unraised pot they have a very good chance of winning with top pair, especially QK,(in a raised pot there is a much higher likelihood someone has you out-kicked).
Another reason they are much stronger is, when you make a flush it is less likely someone will have made a higher flush.
Even though these hands can win by making a pair you would like a stronger flop with these hands, such as the flops I suggested for 34-89. You will make most of your money with these hands when you hit a big flop against many opponents.
Big suited connectors with 1 or 2 gaps such as QT or KT should be played basically the same way although the more gaps the less straight potential your hand has on the flop, 1 gap drops you from 9% to 6% and 2 gaps will drop you to 3%. Unsuited a hand like KT or QT is not very strong, and should be played similarly to AT, either open raise from late position or muck.
Flop percentages for connectors 9T-QK
Flush draw 11%, you will make a flush 35% of the time on the turn or river for a total of 4%.
Open ended straight draw 3%-9% (9T and TJ - 9%, QJ - 6%, KQ - 3%), you will make a straight 31% of the time on the turn or river for a total of 1-3%.
2 pair (both of your hole cards), 2%.
Top pair, 9T - 8%, TJ - 12%, JQ - 16%, QK - 21%
Big hand potential on flop, 3 of a kind/full house/straight/flush 3.5%.
Exception; these hands do not play well in raised pots, they are dominated by most of the hands a decent player would raise or call a raise with. In a raised pot these hands become trap hands while in unraised pots they are very strong holdings. If a decent opponent raises you are most likely way behind with these hands and shouldnt call unless you are suited and have or expect at least, AT LEAST, 3 more players to also call. When a decent player raises in early position I would even fold KQs on the button if noone else or only 1 other decent player has called.
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