I know it is all situational, but I'm curious about in a generalized kind of game theory way and your thoughts on this.

If someone steals 20 bases in 20 tries he is really helping his team win, but what if he could have stolen 33 out of 40 if he decided to run in marginal spots as well as sure things? Which statistic is better not his personal success rate, but winning games rate?

I've been thinking of bluffing the same way lately, I run probably 85-90% success rate when I bluff, which is a great success rate. But would my overall $$$$ won rate be better if i was say only 70% succesful?

I'm a great hand reader, and I'm even better at spotting mannerisms (tells). This contributes to my bluffing success rate, but what if i were to start bluffing say 25% of the time when I'm 50/50 on if i should bluff instead of only bluffing when I'm say 75% sure it will work?

Any other thoughts on this?